UAE pursues breakaway ...
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In summary, these ties are likely to grow stronger in the medium term and could eventually develop into a stable and strategic partnership in the long run.
However, this does not necessarily mean the outcome will benefit the UAE. The Palestinian cause remains a central issue in the Arab world and is not something that can simply be brushed aside. The growing rapprochement between Arab states — particularly the UAE — and Israel effectively amounts to a direct abandonment of that cause, and it will undoubtedly carry consequences.
Moreover, given the nature of the confrontation that unfolded between Iran and the UAE, it has become evident that the UAE could, because of its provocations against Iran, face setbacks that push it years backward. Abu Dhabi is also likely to recognize that its foreign policy must ultimately place reliable neighbors — including the Arab Persian Gulf states and Iran — at the center of its strategic calculations, rather than shaping its policies primarily around the interests of the United States and Israel.
Before the recent escalation, many believed Saudi Arabia was moving toward normalizing ties with Israel and joining the Abraham Accords. In light of the war and the growing tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, can Saudi Arabia still be expected to move toward an agreement with Israel?
Prior to the war, there were many concrete indicators suggesting that Saudi Arabia could eventually join the Abraham Accords. However, considering Iran’s role in the region and its emergence as an undeniable regional — if not extra-regional — power, it can now be argued that the approach of both regional and international actors toward Iran is likely to change.
This shift could push many countries, including neighboring states such as Saudi Arabia, to reconsider and potentially recalibrate their foreign policies and alliance structures. One of the most significant aspects of this process would involve redefining Riyadh’s relationship with the United States and, subsequently, with Israel.
As for whether Saudi Arabia will join the accords in the short, medium, or long term, it is still too early to say with certainty. Much will depend on the final outcome of the war.
If positive negotiations emerge between Iran and the United States, Saudi Arabia could remain in a state of uncertainty regarding the Abraham Accords, or at least continue to weigh its options cautiously. However, if no agreement is reached between Washington and Tehran and the military costs of instability in the region continue to rise, there is a possibility that Saudi Arabia could, under a form of compulsion — partly voluntary and partly imposed by circumstances — become directly involved in the confrontation and eventually join the Abraham Accords. In this regard, the outcome of the war will be highly consequential.
Could the widening rift between the UAE and several key Arab actors, including Abu Dhabi’s withdrawal from frameworks such as OPEC and OAPEC, create new diplomatic, economic, or security opportunities for Iran in the post-war period?
After the war, Iran’s regional role has changed in a fundamental way. From a realistic standpoint, Iran has entered a new phase of power, having demonstrated both a degree of deterrence capability and its broader strength in both offensive and defensive arenas.
The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and Arab alliances, as well as its confrontational posture toward Iran, could create several opportunities for Tehran, including strengthening Iran’s regional standing. Now, Iran could use this opportunity to enhance its leverage — both through control over the Iranian islands and through its oil leverage and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. This could allow Tehran to emerge as a more influential and powerful regional actor.
That said, a more precise assessment will require additional time, as the full consequences of the war have not yet become entirely clear and the situation remains, so to speak, in a gray zone. More time is needed before more definitive and accurate analyses can be offered.