CIA assessment says Iran can endure US blockade for months
A US intelligence analysis has concluded Iran could withstand for months a naval blockade that the US has imposed on Iran’s ports, casting doubt on Donald Trump’s claim that Tehran needs the war to end imminently.
The CIA assessment indicated that Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from a US blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months, according to a US official familiar with the matter, suggesting that US leverage over Tehran remains limited as the two sides seek to end a conflict that has been unpopular with US voters.
The confidential report was delivered to officials in the Trump administration earlier this week, four people familiar with the document told The Washington Post. By storing some of its oil in floating storage aboard tanker ships and decreasing the flows in its oil fields, it has enabled its wells to remain functional, one person said. It may also be able to sell oil through overland routes by truck and rail, the report said. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” one official said.
The CIA estimate that Iran could survive between 90 to 120 days — and maybe longer — before facing more severe economic hardship, the four people familiar with the analysis said.
Tehran also retains 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and around 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a US official said. The intelligence runs contrary to president Trump’s statements about the country’s rapidly diminishing weapons cache.
The official said there is evidence that the country has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
Trump, however, offered a more upbeat assessment Wednesday.
“Their missiles are mostly decimated,” he said. “They have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
The US imposed the blockade on Iran on April 13 after Pakistan-mediated talks failed to produce an agreement to end the US-Israeli aggression on Iran. After the blockade was imposed about a month ago, Trump and top officials in his administration suggested it would produce an immediate crisis for Iran’s oil sector. Trump said last month that Iran’s oil infrastructure could “explode” possibly within three days because the blockade meant Tehran could not export the oil it is pumping from wells.
That scenario did not materialize. But the naval blockade has prevented dozens of Iranian tankers off the coast from moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
US officials say the blockade is designed to cut off Iran’s oil exports — the country’s economic lifeline — and force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bow to US demands at the negotiating table.