TankerTrackers pushes back on US claims of Iran oil storage crunch
Maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers challenged US claims that Iran’s oil production is close to shutdown due to storage constraints, saying output could be sustained even if exports fall sharply.
In a series of posts on X, the firm said, “The ongoing narrative that Iran's oil storage will fill up ASAP and cause production to shutter is wrong,” adding that Iran has the capacity to maintain production by redirecting crude for domestic use.
A US naval blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April has sharply reduced exports, leading to a rapid buildup of crude both onshore and offshore. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed Iranian crude loadings dropping from around 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) before the blockade to about 567,000 bpd in recent weeks.
“If we look back to the Trump 1.0 era, Iran scaled back production to just under 2 Mbpd. Fact is that they can refine that entire amount of oil just for domestic consumption,” TankerTrackers said.
Data tracked since 2018 indicates Iranian exports have already declined from recent highs and are likely to continue falling. However, the firm said that even if exports were to drop to zero, production could still be maintained at roughly 1.8 to 2 million bpd.
Referring to a separate chart tracking exports since April 2018, it added, “The prior tweet’s chart showed Iran’s oil production whereas this one shows Iran’s oil exports as we’ve tracked them since April 2018. As you can see, exports are already down off their highs. Production will decrease. Assuming exports hit zero, production can still hold at 1.8–2 Mbpd.”
The report said output may not decline as quickly as expected even without exports, provided Iran can deploy reserve tankers and move them past US-imposed restrictions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has recently warned that Iran may be forced to shut down oil wells within a week as storage nears capacity under intensified sanctions and maritime restrictions.
The pressure is part of “Operation Economic Fury,” targeting Iran’s oil exports, financial networks and shipping routes to strain its economy. US President Donald Trump has extended the blockade of Iran’s ports following a 40-day conflict, aiming to push Tehran toward a peace agreement after a 40-day war.
Iran said it would continue monitoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under new conditions set by Tehran, only commercial vessels with prior authorization are allowed to transit, while ships linked to the United States, Israel and other “hostile states” are barred.
Iranian officials, including Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, said measures are in place to counter the pressure and that the country would not be forced into halting production.