Reversal of strategies...
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3. Deterrence via punishment: Since pre-war deterrence failed to daunt the enemy, Iran has shifted to deterrence during war. The goal is to demonstrate that continuing the war will incur unbearable costs — including dragging the war into neighboring countries hosting US bases and disrupting global energy supply chains.
International engagement
Iran seeks to leverage China’s concerns over regional energy stability and exploit Beijing’s distrust of US long-term goals in weakening China’s allies. China, the world’s largest energy importer, purchases a significant portion of Iran’s oil exports. Any instability in the Persian Gulf directly harms Beijing’s interests.
Russia, meanwhile, views the coalition’s victory over Iran as a threat to its own security and interests.
Iran, having learned from bitter experiences of European involvement in past wars, prevent engaging Europe in this conflict. This has deepened the rift between Europe and the US, with the EU now viewing this war as one that brings no benefit and has severely damaged its energy sector.
Outcome of war
The outcome of this war hinges on two variables: the enemy’s stockpiles and willpower. The US and Israeli coalition must demonstrate that they possess sufficient resilience and ammunition to pursue invisible enemies across a vast geography (1.6 million square kilometers). Iran, in turn, must prove that it can sustain its mosaic network despite sanctions and continuous attacks — while delivering heavy daily blows to the coalition.
What distinguishes this war is the “reversal of strategies.” The US seeks a short, decisive war, while Iran, as a regional power, leverages innovative military and resilience-based strategies to erode Washington’s assets. Victory in this equation is fluid: Iran, backed by a strong popular base, will continue to survive — and a new regional order will emerge from this conflict.
In contrast, if the US achieves any initial goal, it will ultimately be trapped in the quagmire of a war of attrition — and, without doubt, the loser of this conflict.