Iran-US deal carries strategic weight, to benefit entire region
By Mostafa Alaei
Former diplomat & foreign policy analyst
Given Donald Trump’s unpredictability, the contours of his policymaking and a range of other variables, offering a precise forecast of the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States is no simple task. Even so, there are indications that this round differs in important ways from earlier efforts. In previous negotiations, the US ultimately turned to military action in June, seeking to deliver a decisive blow. At that time, Washington had neither tested a direct military strike on Iran nor had domestic unrest at its disposal aimed at what it described as regime change. In the current talks, it has both experiences behind it.
This time, however, Washington come back to the table after two clear setbacks. The first emerged from the 12-day war, when it became apparent that even a forceful military campaign, carried out with surprise and intensity, failed to secure its stated objectives. Damage was inflicted, but the broader goals that had been outlined were not realized. The second setback followed attempts to capitalize on unrest inside Iran. Protests rooted in legitimate demands over economic grievances were seen by Washington as an opportunity. Efforts were made to leverage that moment, including through armed elements, yet it became clear that this path, too, would not deliver the desired outcome.
Those two failed experiences for Israel and the United States in dealing with Iran suggest that the current negotiations are not simply a rerun of the past. It is therefore plausible that Trump may now contemplate offering concessions, or at least to entertain in his own calculations the need to place some on the table. This calculation unfolds against the backdrop of a massive US military deployment in the Persian Gulf, aimed at signaling deterrence and applying pressure. The show of force is unmistakable, yet this round of negotiations appears, in several respects, distinct from those that preceded it.
The strategic weight of these talks is inseparable from the broader regional context, particularly the scale of the US military buildup in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s stated posture of deterrence. Tehran has made clear that if war breaks out, it will respond forcefully and that any such conflict would inevitably spill over across the region.
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