Iran’s foreign policy ...
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This approach allows Iran to maintain a minimum level of regional influence. Its drivers include shared security and economic needs and international pressure for regional stability. Opportunities include consolidating a foothold in energy markets, maintaining diplomatic channels, and leveraging a mediating role in crises. The challenges, however, are a fragile equilibrium between competition and cooperation, the risk of sudden crises, and a degree of reliance on external powers.
4. Expanded regional cooperation
Under this scenario, Iran forges meaningful strategic and economic partnerships with several Middle Eastern countries, particularly Iraq, Oman, and Turkey. Rivalries are largely confined to secondary issues, and through active diplomacy Iran works to solidify its regional position. Drivers include neighboring states’ desire to lower tensions, energy security concerns, and the need for economic development. The opportunities range from expanded joint investment and sustained diplomatic influence to reduced military threats and greater regional credibility. The main challenges involve limits on cooperation with rival states and the need to carefully manage long-standing historical and sectarian rivalries.
5. Full convergence & regional leadership
In the most optimistic scenario, Iran achieves comprehensive convergence with Middle Eastern countries in security, economic, and energy domains. Tehran’s role as a mediator and regional power is firmly established, past rivalries are reduced to a minimum, and durable regional agreements pave the way for economic growth and lower international pressure. Drivers include the need for collective energy security, shifts in regional perceptions, and a reduction in sanctions and political pressure. Opportunities include regional leadership, higher energy and goods exports, strong diplomatic influence, and diminished military and security threats. The challenges lie in sustaining convergence over time, preventing exploitation by rivals, and maintaining a high degree of diplomatic flexibility.
In conclusion, an analysis of Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East shows that Tehran has consistently navigated between convergence and competition. Efforts to build alliances with neighbors, engage in security frameworks, and pursue economic development offer a path to stabilizing Iran’s regional influence. Yet geopolitical, sectarian, and historical rivalries continue to impose serious constraints and complexity, turning the management of foreign policy into an ongoing strategic challenge.
Despite these obstacles, Iran retains significant capacity to capitalize on regional opportunities. Engagement with aligned states, mediation in regional crises, and the expansion of economic and energy cooperation can help strengthen Tehran’s regional position. Building shared security networks with neighbors and easing historical tensions could also foster greater trust and more durable convergence.
At the same time, Iran faces substantial threats and limitations. Regional rivalries with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel, sustained Western sanctions, and political volatility in neighboring countries all have the potential to narrow the space for cooperation. Long-standing mistrust and misunderstandings between Tehran and some regional actors further complicate efforts to balance rivalry and engagement.
To achieve a stable and effective foreign policy in the Middle East, Iran will need to adopt a calibrated approach that expands cooperation while managing competition. Strengthening economic diplomacy, making use of mediation opportunities, and easing tensions with rival states will be critical to Iran’s success over the next four years. Ultimately, Tehran’s ability to balance convergence and competition will determine its strategic position and long-term influence in the Middle East.