From globalization to energy mercantilism
Weaponization of maritime chokepoints & return to ‘age of insecurity’
By Reza Mokhtar
Senior energy researcher
The world is shifting away from a liberal order built on free trade—the era of Adam Smith—toward one marked by intense geoeconomic rivalries and fragile supply chains. Drawing on recent real-world events, such as the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Red Sea, and seizures of commercial vessels, energy security is no longer a shared global good but has become a tool in hybrid warfare. The focus here is on the vulnerability of key maritime chokepoints and why nations are increasingly turning to strategic stockpiling and overland alternatives.
End of history & return of insecurity
The post-Cold War idea that economic interdependence would prevent major wars has lost its shine. The global liberal order is fading, not because it is failing everyone, but because its continued existence has ended up boosting rising powers more than it serves its original architects—the United States and Europe.
We are now in a time when trade routes are not reliably safe anymore. Moving goods often requires military escorts, payoffs, or bilateral security deals. In this environment, supply chains for goods and energy are being reshaped not by comparative advantage but by relative security.
Wars at sea: breaking down recent events
Field reports make it clear that conflict has spilled from land into the oceans. Seas will matter even more in the years ahead—not just because shipping remains the cheapest way to move things, but because controlling oceans and straits is essential to dominating global energy flows. This shift shows up in several key areas.
First, in the Black Sea and Mediterranean through targeting commercial fleets. Second, in the Indian Ocean through cargo seizures. Third, in energy geopolitics, infrastructure and corridor vulnerabilities, as Ukrainian drones have carried out strikes on Russian oil refineries and Yemen's Ansar Allah forces effectively partially closed Israel's Eilat port and made the Red Sea unsafe.
Survival strategies, stockpiling & alternative corridors
In this era of energy mercantilism, countries are pursuing two main approaches. First, strategic stockpiling, such as China’s filling of its strategic petroleum reserves and building up of grain stocks.
Second, developing overland corridors, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Belt and Road Initiative and rail routes through China, Central Asia, and Iran.
Fate of ‘glass house’ economies
In the end, smaller Persian Gulf states with highly exposed economies—sometimes called "aquarium economies"—look especially fragile in future conflicts. Their weakness is not just reliance on sea routes and the Strait of Hormuz; it is their dependence on imported security arrangements.
Potential regional adversaries like Israel have strong capabilities for air strikes. In a full-scale war, these gleaming but shallow economies could collapse structurally under sustained air and naval pressure. By contrast, nations like Iran and Russia, with abundant energy resources and robust overland connections, stand to show greater resilience if they manage supply chains and self-sufficiency well. Over the next decade, energy security will be measured not by market prices but by assured physical access.