Art of hedging ...
Page 1
Tools of implementation: blending hard and soft power
Turkey’s hedging is not merely diplomatic. The country employs assertive military power to achieve its goals. Military operations in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, along with decisive military support for Azerbaijan, send a clear message: Turkey is not reluctant to use force to protect its interests and is actively defining its own sphere of security influence. Alongside this, soft power based on Ottoman heritage, media diplomacy (the TRT World network), and the promotion of its model of “democratic conservatism” enhances its appeal in parts of the developing world.
Strategic risks: playing on both sides
This ambitious strategy is not without dangers:
1. Distrust: Turkey risks being seen by the West as “unreliable” and by Russia and the East as a “mercenary ally.”
2. Overstretch: Simultaneous involvement in multiple theatres (the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, the Caucasus) could exhaust the country’s economic and military resources.
3. Economic Fragility: High inflation and dependence on foreign investment constitute a critical vulnerability that could overshadow all diplomatic maneuvering.
Central power in the making
Turkey’s hedging strategy is an ambitious gamble to redefine its identity and international standing. Erdogan and Turkey’s foreign‑policy architects are not seeking a complete break with the West, nor are they willing to accept unquestioning subordination to it. By creating multiple, reciprocal dependencies, they aim to raise the cost for any hostile action against Turkey and carve out space for independent action.
The future of this strategy depends on two key factors: domestic economic stability and Ankara’s diplomatic skill in managing the inevitable tensions of this multi‑faceted game. If successful, Turkey could become a model for middle powers with grand ambitions. If it fails, it may find itself caught in limbo—without a steadfast ally. In any case, Turkey offers the world a practical lesson: in an age of geopolitical turmoil, smart hedging can be a weapon for survival and relevance.