Egypt moves to ...
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Naturally, if Egypt’s mediation efforts—whether by initiating direct talks or at least dialing down the intensity of the crisis—bear fruit, its role as a prudent, responsible actor with significant regional weight would be brought into sharper relief.
Given Egypt’s track record in mediating issues related to Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, how do you assess Cairo’s chances of helping prevent a further escalation of the current crisis?
There is no doubt that Egypt’s efforts are serious, sincere, and responsible. However, it must be noted that the areas of disagreement between Tehran and Washington are numerous and long-standing. A review of the mutual accusations exchanged between Iran and the US shows just how protracted this file has become and how its complexities have piled up over time. In certain respects, the disputes have taken on the character of identity-based confrontation.
Accordingly, mediation efforts—whether undertaken by Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Turkey, or Egypt—will not pay off simply or quickly. In other words, beyond the sincere and sustained efforts currently being made by the Egyptians, reducing points of contention also requires political will on the part of both sides to the conflict.
What constraints does Cairo face in its efforts, particularly in light of Egypt’s strategic relations with Washington?
Egypt does face constraints in this regard, primarily because the number of key actors involved in this file is substantial. The complexity of the Iran file is partly due to the multiplicity of stakeholders: China, Russia, Britain, the European Union, and numerous regional countries—and most importantly Israel—each of which acts based on its national interests and its own perception of the Middle Eastern environment. Therefore, while Egypt seeks to step in and play a role, other actors are simultaneously pursuing extensive efforts either in alignment with or in opposition to Cairo’s initiatives, with Israel’s negative role arguably the most consequential.
Can Egypt’s diplomatic synergy with Qatar, Turkey, and Oman evolve into a regional consensus capable of deterring US military scenarios?
No, it cannot. First, the US, Israel, and the European Union do not necessarily share identical assessments of the present situation, nor do they always pursue the same goals with respect to Iran. Moreover, regional countries do not want the existing balance to be disrupted in Israel’s favor, while at the same time they do not seek a resurgence of Iranian power. Their efforts will therefore continue only to the extent that they prevent Iran’s disintegration or outright defeat.