Understanding drivers of Iranian protests
By Mojtaba Lashkarbolouki
University professor
It is evident that the country’s security, judicial, and law enforcement institutions will provide senior state officials with various reports on why the situation has escalated into protests. I recently had the opportunity to speak with several protesters (with those expressing dissent, not rioters or vandals). Some were first-time protesters, while others had protested before. Here is the essence of those conversations. Why do people protest? For five primary reasons.
1) A Lack of horizon
In the early 2010s, a former minister on a study trip to China (around 15 years ago) remarked that the Chinese citizens he saw lived in miserable conditions. Their standard of living and healthcare was incomparable to Iran’s at the time. Yet, they were remarkably hopeful because they witnessed their government periodically demolishing old buildings block by block and constructing new ones to hand over. People lived in hardship but had a clear vision. They told themselves, ‘Not this month, but next month; not this year, but next year, our turn will finally come.’ The protesters I spoke with have no clear picture of the future. (This is a crisis of collective national lack of vision.) The current sensitive juncture has resulted in us perpetually navigating one crisis only to prepare for the next – a policy of makeshift, short-term solutions.
2) Lack of representation
A significant portion of the populace feels they lack any real or effective representative within the power structure. They do not know who effectively pursues their interests, concerns, and priorities within the establishment to see them through to a result.
3) Lack of channels
Globally, political parties, trade unions, and civil society organizations serve as arenas for consolidating opinions, dialogue, and negotiation between the people and the government. In Iran, we lack straightforward, result-oriented channels for conveying opinions. To simply say 'let the people voice their concerns’ raises the question: precisely how, and to whom? Suppose someone is critical of internet filtering policies; where exactly should they turn? A critic without a channel becomes a protester.
4) Perception of parallel worlds
Protesters say that over the past decade, they consume less meat (according to statistics, red meat consumption has fallen to about one-third of levels ten years ago), travel less, and take more nerve pills, while respected officials speak of progress, growth, and development. It is as if we inhabit parallel worlds.
5) Choosing the ‘lesser evil’ over ‘much better’
Over the years, the public has repeatedly been urged to choose the ‘lesser evil’ option to prevent matters from deteriorating drastically. However, there are those (outside the establishment) who promise a ‘much better’ alternative (whether true or false). Today’s protesters are the same people who have grown weary of the ‘lesser evil’ and have pinned their hopes on the ‘much better’ option.
A Simplified formula:
Dissatisfaction (Reasons 1 & 5) + Despair (Reasons 2, 3 & 4) = Unrest and Unorganized Protests.
It is crucial to distinguish between unorganized protests and organized riots.
Two Notable Observations from these Dialogues:
1) Moving beyond the four traditional authorities
There was a time in this land when four primary intellectual and political authorities existed: Marja’ (sources of emulation) and clerics, parents, intellectuals, and prominent political figures. The group of protesters I encountered have moved beyond all these. Perhaps we are entering a society without reference points. I do not know. I only know that traditional authorities have long been set aside by society, and this, alongside an atomized society lacking organization, becomes even more concerning. Why? Because even if the state wished to negotiate with the protesters, with whom precisely and how?
2) 50-year chasm
The heads of the three branches of government, the Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, and the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council are all in their seventies and eighties. Meanwhile, a significant portion of the protesters have not yet completed their second decade of life. This 50-year age gap makes dialogue difficult. Interaction between senior managers belonging to the top 7% of the age pyramid (over 65) and the 93% of society under 65 is not straightforward.
A strategic question:
These protesters (not the vandals) are the very people from the streets, the bazaars, schools, and offices. They are the nurses who sacrificed themselves during the COVID pandemic. They are the students and athletes who won gold medals for Iran in academic Olympiads and the Olympic Games. I believe that if called upon, these same protesters would stand shoulder to shoulder with military and law enforcement forces in defending this land’s security against rioters, vandals, and mercenaries. But if the five reasons above persist, we may, through mere rhetoric, judicial and law enforcement action alone, and media restrictions, manage to dampen the visible flames. Yet, what does one do with the smoldering embers beneath the ashes?
The interview first appeared in Persian on IRNA.