Iran oil supply disruptions unlikely despite US escalation: Kepler
Oil prices have gained strongly over the last few days as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, but analysts at Kepler see little probability of supply disruptions from Iran, the key West Asian producer.
On Thursday, Brent oil futures for March rose to $68.75 a barrel, trading as high as $70.35 a barrel this session, its highest since late September. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.1% to $64.52 a barrel having earlier topped $65 a barrel also a four-month high.
US President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program with the arrival of a US naval group in the region.
Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux said in a note dated January 29, "Trump aims to achieve one goal — a nuclear deal with Iran and nothing else,” and thus they see little probability of Iranian supply disruptions despite the deployment of a US naval 'armada' in the region, investing.com wrote.
“We would largely rule out a broad US bombing campaign against Iran, as quite simply, its strategic purpose is unclear," said Kepler, as Trump’s primary objective remains the “dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program,” not state change per se.
However, the bank said pressure could instead focus on the seizure of Iranian tankers outside the Persian Gulf.
According to the analysis, a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz remains a very remote scenario as seen in June. This is a red line Iran would not cross, not least because China, its oil customer, it wrote.
“We have been there before (June 2025). Oil price could continue to rise short-term, but it will be short lived (matter of couple of weeks in our view). Brent was very close to $60/bbl in December before a series of events occurred,” Kepler said.
“We would advise investors to tactically sell the oil&gas sector on any oil price strength from here.”