Turkey’s mediation bid driven by goodwill, necessity
Firouz Dolatabadi
As tensions between Iran and the United States have reached a sensitive juncture, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has floated a proposal to host direct talks between the presidents of the two countries, in an effort to prevent the crisis from escalating and avert a military confrontation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also traveled to Istanbul and may convey Tehran’s response to the proposal. Ankara has repeatedly stated its opposition to any form of foreign intervention in Iran. Speaking to Iran Daily, Turkey affairs expert Firouz Dolatabadi said Turkey’s effort is driven both by goodwill and necessity, but added that effective mediation is impossible, not only for Turkey, but for others as well, due to US overreach and its refusal to moderate its positions.
IRAN DAILY: What political and security considerations have prompted Ankara to step forward with such an initiative at this point?
DOLATABADI: Both goodwill and necessity are the two factors driving Turkey’s inclination to engage in this process. Goodwill stems from the fact that the Turks do not have a clear assessment of the outcomes of the 12-day war [in June], and the wave of propaganda by the United States and Israel, along with anti-Iran groups, has made them deeply apprehensive about the consequences of another conflict. The second factor is necessity, because Turkey, after suffering heavy setbacks in its foreign policy in Syria and Libya, and due to the lack of support from Arab and American countries as a result of the strongly Muslim Brotherhood–oriented tendencies of its leaders, finds itself in a dangerously isolated position. This proposal puts forward a softer image of Turkey at the regional and global levels, and Ankara believes it could create a new position for itself in the most strategic global issue — namely, Iran’s disputes with the United States and Israel.
Turkey simultaneously maintains extensive relations with Iran, the United States, and NATO. Does this position enable Ankara to play the role of an effective mediator? Can Turkey move beyond making a merely symbolic proposal?
An effective mediation role is almost impossible, both for Turkey and for others, because the United States is seeking to realize illegitimate demands that go far beyond the nuclear issue, and experience so far has shown that mediators’ efforts have come to nothing. The United States expects mediators primarily to increase pressure on Iran to accept Washington’s demands and to persuade Tehran to acquiesce to unjust conditions, rather than to broker an agreement. Otherwise, the United States and Trump would not have torn up the JCPOA [2015 nuclear deal] and withdrawn from an agreement that was more beneficial to them.
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