Nouri al-Maliki, fit ...
Page 1
He will undoubtedly face significant challenges. Perhaps the most pressing is the concurrent presence of Donald Trump as president, who has made numerous threats against Iraq, including sanctions against Iraqi political figures. Undoubtedly, a portion of his ability to build domestic unity will be linked to his foreign policy. Maintaining a balance in Iraq’s relations between Iran and the United States will be crucial in his foreign policy. One key domestic file he will address is the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil. His ties with the Sadrist movement, a powerful opposition force that doesn’t view Al-Maliki favorably, will also be a challenge. The economy is also a serious challenge for Iraq, facing numerous difficulties. Finally, his relations with Arab countries, particularly those in the Persian Gulf, who have not held a positive view of Al-Maliki in his previous two terms as prime minister, are also a sensitive issue. How Al-Maliki can win over their trust will be vital.
Given his well-established ties to Iran, what implications will Al-Maliki’s selection have for Iraq-Iran relations?
Al-Maliki is considered a friend of Iran and a Shia political figure closely aligned with the Islamic Republic. However, it shouldn’t be forgotten that he is a politician who prioritizes Iraq’s national interests. Both he and his political party, the Dawa Party, have historically supported the principles of resistance and the Islamic Republic in broader strategic matters. Nevertheless, one thing Al-Maliki will undoubtedly consider during this exceptionally tense and difficult period is creating a balance between the key players and power centers present in Iraq – namely, Tehran and Washington. I don’t believe he will seek to disrupt this balance, although there are suspicions about him from his opponents, both in Iraq and abroad. Given the current situation and the Shia Coordination Framework’s understanding, Al-Maliki’s approach will likely be to create a balance in foreign policy to allow Iraq to navigate this sensitive and tense situation.
How do you think Nouri al-Maliki’s premiership will impact relations between Baghdad and Washington? Can Al-Maliki stand firm against pressure to disarm resistance groups and defend Iraq’s sovereignty and independence?
I believe that Al-Maliki and the Shia Coordination Framework have reached a general conclusion on this matter – a desire to de-escalate tensions with the United States. The Iraqi government and political structure have no desire whatsoever to create tensions with Americans. My assessment is that a decision has already been made to lower the level of armament possession by some of these resistance groups and to integrate them into the Iraqi armed forces. This may not happen completely, but I believe that the Iraqis and Al-Maliki’s government will take a series of gradual and minimal steps in this regard to appease the Americans and reduce tensions.
Generally, there’s a demand among various political factions in Iraq, some social groups, and even religious leaders for weapons to be the exclusive domain of the government. Therefore, I believe that Al-Maliki’s government will also consider this matter. The resistance groups in Iraq generally trust Al-Maliki as a figure who has supported them, and this trust can gradually help achieve this goal and reduce the pressure exerted by the Americans. However, Al-Maliki is also a nationalist and powerful Iraqi figure who has always criticized foreign interference in Iraq. He will strive to maintain a balance so that neither the framework of Iraqi sovereignty is compromised nor the country is threatened by the Americans. Still, it is a difficult situation and it remains to be seen how much Al-Maliki will be able to succeed in this case.