Rejecting the Russian ...
Page 1
Many countries also argue that Russia’s proposed conditions would lead to an unstable ceasefire and future conflicts rather than genuine peace. Without addressing the underlying causes of tension—such as Russian forces near new borders, deep-seated distrust, and the possibility of repeated aggression—such an agreement would merely postpone confrontation rather than resolve it. Russia’s demands for complete sanctions relief and the restriction of Western military influence, without reciprocal guarantees, are seen in the West as unilateral concessions. Consequently, many perceive this model of peace as essentially consolidating Russia’s military victories rather than achieving a fair and lasting agreement, making it politically, strategically, and legally unacceptable.
Three scenarios are plausible in the context of the Ukraine-Russia crisis:
Scenario 1: Conditional and Limited Peace (Partial Acceptance of Russian Demands)
In this scenario, international pressure and the war’s attritional nature might push Ukraine and the West toward accepting some of Russia’s conditions, such as a long-term ceasefire, Ukraine’s relative neutrality, and tacit recognition of Russian control over certain areas. Drivers of this scenario include declining military capacities, Western economic fatigue, increased attacks on critical infrastructure, and shifting European political priorities. The outcome would be a fragile peace, with eastern Ukraine effectively under opposing control and the international environment remaining tense. This scenario is likely to result in a “suspension of war” rather than a full resolution, although it would reduce the intensity of hostilities.
Scenario 2: Continued Attritional War and Escalation
Here, neither Russia nor Ukraine would retreat from their strategic positions, with Western military and financial support for Ukraine continuing. Drivers include political deadlock in negotiations, intensified missile attacks, introduction of advanced equipment, and geopolitical competition among major powers. The result would be a protracted, multi-phase war threatening not only Ukraine’s territory but also European energy security, global economic stability, and Eastern European borders. Short-term ceasefires may occur, but overall hostilities would persist.
Scenario 3: Comprehensive Peace through Multilateral Agreement and Security Guarantees
In this scenario, developments such as a change in political leadership, heavy international pressure, or strategic agreements among global powers could pave the way for a full peace settlement. Key drivers include the economic need for reconstruction, public pressure in the countries involved, shifts in Europe’s security calculus, and direct negotiations among major powers. Ukraine would accept certain military limitations in exchange for international security guarantees, while Russia would concede on some maximum demands. The outcome would be the gradual restoration of stability, the beginning of Ukraine’s reconstruction, and the formation of a new European security framework—a challenging but most promising scenario for a durable resolution.
Ultimately, the future of peace between Russia and Ukraine depends heavily on the balance of military power, international political and economic pressure, and domestic developments in both countries. If the war remains attritional, the parties may move toward a managed ceasefire or conditional peace—one that may not be fully comprehensive or permanent but could prevent further infrastructure destruction and human suffering. In such a case, agreements would focus on halting hostilities, stabilizing contact lines, and imposing military constraints, without fully resolving border disputes or the status of contested areas. This pattern may resemble a “cold peace,” where active warfare halts but the political and security roots of the crisis persist. True and lasting peace, however, is possible only if either of two conditions is met: a fundamental shift in the strategic calculations of the parties, or effective intervention and security guarantees from major international powers. The future of peace hinges on whether the parties conclude that the cost of continuing the war exceeds that of compromise. If such a shift occurs, the formation of a new European security framework, Ukraine’s reconstruction, and a partial rollback of maximum demands are plausible. If it does not, the prospect of peace remains distant, and the crisis may endure for years as a frozen or “cold” conflict.