Iraqi government, popular ...
Page 1
However, other assessments suggest that the United States is seeking to step up intelligence collection on Iran’s latent capabilities and missile power in preparation for a new strike against Iran.
Intense US pressure on the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani to disarm the Popular Mobilization Forces and other popular Iraqi forces indicates that Washington is looking toward a new adventure against the Axis of Resistance. Two distinct approaches exist in Iraq. The first is the official stance of the government, which seeks, through diplomatic channels, to prevent an escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States. The Iraqi government believes the United States should not use Iraqi territory against its neighbors, but Washington views Iraq as part of its regional sphere of influence. The presence of thousands of US troops in Iraq has limited Baghdad’s ability to take a firm stand against American adventurism, whether against Iran or the Axis of Resistance.
The second approach is that of Iraq’s popular armed forces, which strongly condemn any US action against Iran or the Axis of Resistance. Leaders of these movements believe that Iran stood by the Iraqi government and people during the country’s most difficult times and sacrificed hundreds of martyrs in the fight against terrorist groups. The cowardly assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force, by the United States—while he was an official guest of the Iraqi government—is seen as a blatant violation of Iraq’s national sovereignty. That painful assassination showed that the United States had a role in strengthening terrorist groups in Iraq, as General Soleimani played a decisive role in confronting those groups and preventing terrorists from advancing toward Baghdad. Therefore, the presence of arms in the hands of the Popular Mobilization Forces is entirely defensive and legal and has nothing to do with US forces in Iraq.
Naturally, Iran carefully and intelligently monitors any suspicious US movements in the region, especially in Iraq, and has repeatedly conveyed its concerns over such activities to the Iraqi side. Nevertheless, should the United States seek to act against Iran from Iraqi territory, it will undoubtedly trigger a response from Iran, while Iraq’s popular forces will also not allow their country’s soil to turn into a hub for US adventurism against Iran.
Al-Sadeq has also underlined Iran’s support for resistance groups, saying Tehran respects the decisions of the Iraqi government and engages positively with anything that preserves the rights of the resistance and the sovereignty of the state. How should Iran’s support for Iraqi resistance groups be analyzed within the framework of Iran-Iraq bilateral relations, and what impact does this support have on Iraq’s internal balance of power?
Iran’s policy of supporting the Axis of Resistance falls within the legitimate right of self-defense, because the conduct of resistance forces in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen is not offensive but purely defensive. Over the past two decades, especially after the fall of the Baath regime in 2003, Iraq has faced a massive influx of terrorist groups, which led to the formation of popular forces to defend the Iraqi people. Iran also played a role in the establishment of these popular defense forces, as no country, including US forces, took effective action to confront terrorist groups.
Iraqi governments, due to the dissolution of the country’s army, regarded the popular forces as part of Iraq’s military, security, and defense capacity and worked to strengthen them. Therefore, the existence of these forces is entirely rooted in domestic needs. Iran and Iraq also have bilateral security agreements, and the Iraqi government is obligated to safeguard the security of the shared borders with Iran. Since Iraq’s popular forces are committed to maintaining the security of these borders, responsibility for any insecurity along the Iran-Iraq frontier would rest with the Baghdad government.
To what extent can Baghdad’s efforts to facilitate dialogue between Tehran and Washington be considered realistic and achievable?
The Iraqi government believes that reducing regional tensions, particularly easing tensions between Tehran and Washington, could create a favorable environment for interaction among countries in the region. Given Iran’s broad popular base in Iraq, stemming from the shared religious and cultural ties between the two nations, any tension between Iran and the United States would have a negative impact on Iraqi society. It is therefore in the interest of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s government to create conditions that allow Iran and the United States to resolve their problems through direct negotiations.
In the past, Iraq has made fruitful efforts to bring together the views of Iran and several regional and global actors, including the United States. Now, given the extensive relations between Washington and the Iraqi government, it is natural that Baghdad could use these ties to mediate between Tehran and Washington, and such an outcome appears plausible. Iran will certainly consider the Iraqi government’s proposal, provided that the American side also demonstrates goodwill and a readiness to enter a series of respectful negotiations with Iran.