Ten most significant world events in 2025
Anyone hoping that 2025 would provide a break from what was an exhausting 2024 on the world stage came away disappointed. The past 12 months have been a trying time for international cooperation as the forces of conflict and contention grew stronger and the end of the American-led world order more clearly came into view. Unlike 2024, when the pageantry of the Summer Olympics and the beauty of the host city, Paris, reminded everyone of what cooperation and collaboration can accomplish, 2025 provided few instances of inspiration. One can only hope that 2026 will surprise us in a good way. But before we jump to the new year, here are my top 10 most significant world events in 2025. You may want to read what follows closely. Many of these stories will continue to make news in 2026.
By James M. Lindsay
Distinguished senior fellow at Council on Foreign Relations
10. Cambodia and Thailand clash
Countries can come to blows even when one is substantially larger and better equipped than the other. A case in point is the conflict that erupted in July between Cambodia and Thailand. With a population of just over 17 million, Cambodia is far smaller and militarily weaker than its neighbor, Thailand, which has a population four times larger. The July fighting, the worst in decades, ostensibly was about a century-old border dispute. In particular, Cambodia and Thailand both claim ownership of Prasat Ta Muen Thom, an ancient temple perched in the forested Dangrek Mountains that divide the two countries. But complicated domestic politics on both sides of the border pushed those latent tensions into open conflict.
The initial fighting killed several dozen people and displaced tens of thousands. US President Donald Trump intervened and threatened to halt trade negotiations with Cambodia and Thailand unless the fighting stopped. Both sides then grudgingly agreed to a cease-fire. A formal deal was signed in late October in Kuala Lumpur on the margins of the annual ASEAN Summit. The agreement, however, did not stick. A landmine killed four Thai soldiers in November, prompting Bangkok to suspend parts of the agreement. The fighting escalated earlier this month when Thai fighter jets bombed targets in Cambodia. Thailand’s new prime minister, whose predecessor was ousted for being too conciliatory to Phnom Penh, has vowed that “if the fighting is to stop, Cambodia must follow the course of action set by Thailand.” That sounds like a recipe for continued fighting.
9. Cardinal Robert Prevost becomes Pope Leo XIV
The Roman Catholic Church has had 267 popes. Until 2025, not one of them had been from North America, let alone the United States. That changed in May. On April 21, the ailing Pope Francis died suddenly after suffering a stroke. He had been pope for a dozen years. The Roman Catholic Church then entered a period it calls the interregnum, which lasts until a new pope is selected. Following time-honored tradition, the 133 cardinals eligible to participate assembled in Rome for a conclave, the formal process for selecting the next pope. The first three ballots saw black smoke emerge from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney, signifying that no one had achieved the necessary two-thirds support. Then on the fourth ballot, the smoke turned white. The conclave had selected Cardinal Robert Prevost.
Born and raised on the South Side of Chicago and a graduate of Villanova University, he spent more than two decades in Peru, first doing missionary work and then as Bishop of Chiclayo. In 2023, he moved to Rome to become prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, which oversees the selection of most bishops, and was subsequently made a cardinal. Prevost became the first member of the Augustinian religious order, which was founded in 1244, to become pope. Upon being installed, he took the name Leo XIV to recall the example of Pope Leo XIII, the author of the 1891 encyclical Rerum Novarum (“Revolutionary Change”) that called for improving the lot of the working class.
8. India and Pakistan clash
In 2000, then-US president Bill Clinton called Kashmir “the most dangerous place in the world”. The simmering tensions between India and Pakistan over the region erupted into open conflict in May, two weeks after five terrorists killed 26 people near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistani-based terrorist organization that carried out the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack that killed 175 people, likely sponsored the Pahalgam attack. In 2008, India declined to retaliate. This time, however, it struck what it called “terrorist infrastructure” inside Pakistan. Pakistan responded with drone and missile strikes against Indian military bases and shot down two of India’s most advanced fighter jets. India, in turn, destroyed air defense systems around the Pakistani city of Lahore.
Neither side gained a meaningful military advantage from their most intense fighting in half a century, and they agreed to a cease-fire after three days. President Donald Trump said he mediated the cease-fire, a claim that Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir supported and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi rejected. The immediate consequence of the fighting was a rift in US-Indian relations as Trump slapped steep tariffs on Indian exports partly in retaliation for Modi’s refusal to acknowledge his mediation efforts. But the underlying animus between India and Pakistan remains. One open issue is whether India’s decision to suspend its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 means it will curtail the flow of water in the Indus River system that supplies 80 percent of Pakistani farms.
7. AI race intensifies
Russian President Vladimir Putin said of artificial intelligence (AI) back in 2017 that “whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” History may prove him wrong, but for now, countries are acting as if he might be right. The United States and China are the world’s two leading AI powers, and no one else is close. The Chinese firm DeepSeek captured global attention in January when it released an AI model that matched the best US AI models without using advanced Nvidia chips that had been seen as essential to cutting-edge AI operations. Experts challenged DeepSeek’s claims, but US firms took them as reason to double down on their own AI investments. The importance of chips in AI development fueled the Trump administration’s initial decision to continue and then expand the restrictions the Biden administration placed on the export of advanced semiconductors made in the United States or with US technology. Three weeks ago, however, Trump reversed course and authorized Nvidia to sell its powerful H200 chip to China. The decision triggered biting criticism that he was endangering US national security. Lost in this debate is the fact that the AI race is not just about which country builds the best models but also who does a better job integrating AI into everyday operations. Here, China may have the advantage. Meanwhile, critics ask whether AI might turn into an epic bust that shocks the economy or an epic success that erases jobs.
6. Sudan’s grueling civil war continues
“Hell on Earth” may be the best description of Sudan’s nearly three-year-long civil war. The fighting pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. The two men seized power in a coup in October 2021 but eventually had a falling out. Neither side has won a decisive breakthrough, and fighting continues across multiple fronts. The SAF governs from Port Sudan on the Red Sea, controls the major cities in the east and north, and is recognized as Sudan’s legitimate government. Meanwhile, the RSF controls most of Darfur and other areas in central and western Sudan. Each side has foreign backers, with Egypt, Russia, and Turkey among the countries supporting the SAF and Chad, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates among those supporting the RSF.
The war’s human cost has been staggering. As many as 400,000 people have died, and more than 12 million have been displaced. Much of the country faces famine, and the demand for humanitarian aid far outpaces available resources. The fighting was particularly gruesome in the city of El Fasher, the last SAF stronghold in Darfur, which the RSF took in October after an 18-month siege. The blood and bodies from the resulting slaughter of the city’s inhabitants could be seen from space. The prospects for a mediated end to the civil war remain dim, and the country’s de facto partition is a possibility.
5. United States brokers a Gaza peace plan
After two years of brutal fighting, Israel and Hamas agreed in October to a cease-fire. It was the second of the year. The Biden administration negotiated a cease-fire in January that increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, led Hamas to release 33 captives, and prompted Israel to free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The respite from the fighting ended in mid-March after the two sides disagreed on the terms of an extension.
President Donald Trump played a central role in pushing for the October cease-fire, with Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt also helping mediate. The agreement laid out a three-phase peace plan for Gaza: 1) an immediate cease-fire with Israeli security forces withdrawing to preset lines and an exchange of captives and prisoners; 2) the demilitarization of Hamas and the dispatch of an international stabilization force to Gaza; and 3) the reconstitution of Palestinian governance and the reconstruction of Gaza. The United States considers phase one completed, though Israel insists that it will not move to phase two until the last Israeli captive is released. The UN Security Council endorsed the Gaza peace plan in November, authorizing the deployment of the International Stabilization Force and calling for the establishment of a Palestinian Committee to manage Gaza’s day-to-day governance. A lasting peace, however, remains elusive. Israel has resumed strikes in Gaza, Hamas shows no signs of disarming, and no country has yet formally committed to contributing troops to the International Stabilization Force.
4. War in Ukraine grinds on
The war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, ground on in 2025. Russia intensified its missile and drone campaigns, repeatedly striking Ukrainian cities, causing heavy civilian casualties and damaging major infrastructure. In March, Russia reclaimed its province of Kursk, which Ukraine seized in a surprise invasion in August 2024. Russian advances in Ukraine itself, though, were meager; Russia increased its control of Ukrainian territory by less than 1 percent in 2025. Those gains came at a frightening cost, with Russia losing roughly 1,000 soldiers every day. Ukraine’s losses are far lower, but its population is just a third of Russia’s. Ukraine stunned the world in June with Operation Spiderweb, a covert drone strike deep into Russia that hit five air bases. The attack, however, did not change the war’s basic dynamics.
Experts debate how long Russia and Ukraine can continue fighting, though Ukraine’s position looks more precarious. President Donald Trump insists that Kyiv does not “have the cards” needed to win, and he remains opposed to increasing US support. Europe is providing Kyiv with substantial financial and military support, and the European Union ended 2025 by agreeing to provide Kyiv with a $105 billion loan. That should cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs over the next two years. Trump is pushing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept a cease-fire that many experts see as heavily tilted in Russia’s favor. Even so, Russian President Vladimir Putin looks likely to hold out for more.
3. Israel and United States attack Iran’s nuclear facilities
Some wars are measured in years, others in days. The June confrontation between Israel and Iran falls in the latter category; it is now known as the 12-Day War. The clash was years in the making. Israel has long seen Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for anti-Israeli resistance groups across the Middle East as an existential threat. After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Israel targeted Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These operations damaged Tehran’s ability to use the so-called Axis of Resistance to deter an Israeli attack on Iran. In October 2024, Israeli air strikes hit Iran’s missile facilities and air defenses.
In June 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion. It involved air strikes on Iranian nuclear and ballistic-missile facilities, as well as on military bases and command nodes, and the assassination of politicians, military leaders, and scientists. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at Israel. Then, on June 22, US B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles hit Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of Operation Midnight Hammer. President Donald Trump claimed the attack “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. However, Iran likely dispersed its stockpile of enriched uranium before the bombs fell. Iran agreed to Israel’s request for a cease-fire on June 24. That halted the fighting but left the underlying political disputes unresolved.
2. China weaponizes rare-earth minerals
Future historians may flag 2025 as the year China established itself as a superpower equal to the United States. For decades, Washington used its economic dominance, particularly in international finance, to advance its foreign policy objectives. In April 2025 and again in October, Beijing showed that it could also weaponize its economic advantages. In its case, the leverage comes from rare-earth minerals essential to a wide range of industrial and military applications. China has worked for years to dominate the rare-earth supply chain; it now controls roughly 60 percent of the world’s rare-earth mining and 90 percent of its refining capacity. China’s willingness to weaponize its dominance was no secret. Beijing curtailed rare-earth exports to Japan in 2010 during a territorial dispute over the Senkaku (or Diaoyu) islands.
Despite the warning, the United States did little to protect itself. When Trump raised tariffs on China in April, Beijing halted the export of magnets and seven rare earth minerals to the United States. Within a month, Trump scaled back his tariffs. In October, after Trump imposed additional restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductor chips and technology to China, Beijing imposed new regulations on the export of products using Chinese rare earth minerals. Faced with a potentially substantial disruption to the US economy, Trump delayed implementation of his export controls and abandoned several other measures aimed at China. Beijing, in turn, delayed implementation of its October regulations for one year, suggesting that the rare-earth threat continues to hang over the United States.
1. Donald Trump disrupts US foreign policy
Is making good on your word always a good thing? Donald Trump vowed in 2024 to overhaul US foreign policy. He can now say, “Promises Made. Promises Kept.” His disruptions began even before he took office, when he declared his desire to acquire Greenland, make Canada the 51st state, and reassert control over the Panama Canal. On Inauguration Day, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, restricted refugee readmissions, and designated drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. In his first month in office, he began shuttering the US Agency for International Development, ending independent oversight of major federal agencies, and slashing government payrolls. On April 2, he launched “Liberation Day,” imposing 10 percent tariffs on most imports along with additional country-specific tariffs of up to 50 percent. Trump claimed credit for convincing NATO members to spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense and for ending eight foreign wars. He failed, however, to end the war in Ukraine, and to the surprise of his non-interventionist supporters, he threatened Venezuela with regime change. Earlier this month, he released a National Security Strategy that provided a strategic logic for his actions.
Critics found much to fault in what Trump did: his tariffs hurt US consumers and producers, his Ukraine peace plan rewarded Russia, many of the conflicts he claims to have ended continue, and his downsizing of the national security bureaucracy left the US government greatly weakened. One thing, however, has become clear: Trump has ended the era of Pax Americana. That reality brings to mind Joni Mitchell’s haunting lyrics: “You don’t know what you’ve got. Till it’s gone.”
The article was first published by the Council on Foreign
Relations.