US Venezuela policy ...
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Given the absence of direct conflict, how serious is the risk of escalation to the level of military confrontation?
Considering that Trump’s social base, or the MAGA movement, does not welcome war, Washington is likely to pursue its objectives through threats or what is often described as peace through strength. Accordingly, the US approach has been to apply pressure through sanctions and blockades. The aim is to prevent war from breaking out.
Still, there are no absolute guarantees. Should a perceived necessity arise, all these factors could fall into line. Therefore, if Maduro can be compelled to step aside through dialogue, diplomacy, pressure, sanctions, and exchange of messages, that option would likely be preferred over any military conflict. Otherwise, if the Monroe Doctrine truly underpins this approach, war may ultimately prove unavoidable. It should also be noted that not all aspects are fully known; for instance, whether the United States is pursuing outright regime change, or merely the removal of Maduro while tolerating his successors and engaging them in negotiations and political compromise.
What role can regional and global actors play in finding a diplomatic solution to this crisis, and where might Iran fit into this equation?
It is unlikely that international rivals of the United States can prevent Washington’s approach toward Venezuela or similar cases. They lack both the tools and motivation to do so. The region remains firmly under US dominance, leaving little room for meaningful assistance to the Venezuelan government. Consequently, neither Russia nor China can do much in practical terms, and the same applies even more so to Iran.
As for international institutions and global public opinion, they are also unlikely to play a key role. International institutions are effectively paralyzed, a reality that was evident during the Ukraine crisis and the 12-day war, as power dynamics prevail. Public opinion can also be managed through narrative-building, such as the emphasis on drugs and trafficking.
The key point to bear in mind is that countries like Venezuela will never hold the same importance for the United States as Argentina or Brazil. Venezuela occupies a relatively low position both in the international system and in US foreign policy priorities. As such, these developments should be viewed as a temporary, short-lived, and relatively low-cost crisis rather than a major, enduring confrontation.