Iran’s exports to Russia set to hit $1.2b by yearend amid $30b trade target push: Chamber
By Sadeq Dehqan
Staff writer
Iranian exports to Russia are projected to reach $1.2 billion by the end of the current Iranian calendar year on March 21, 2026, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, according to Kambiz Mirkarimi, a board member of the Iran-Russia Joint Chamber of Commerce.
Mirkarimi described the export trend to Russia as consistently upward and emphasized that achieving a bilateral trade volume of $30 billion in the coming years is “entirely attainable.”
Russia has a $300 billion import market, which in some years exceeds that amount, but Iran’s current share of this market is less than 0.5%.
Mirkarimi noted that even capturing just 10% of this market would enable Iran to reach the $30 billion trade target within five to six years.
Total trade between Iran and Russia is expected to reach approximately $3 billion by the end of the year, with the trade balance gradually moving toward equilibrium. Despite recent growth in commercial exchanges, Mirkarimi stressed that the real potential for trade between the two countries is significantly higher.
The private sector accounts for the majority of Iran’s exports to Russia, a dynamic that supports broader domestic business activity, he said.
Until 2019–2020, bilateral trade remained low and heavily skewed toward Iranian imports from Russia. At its peak during that period, Iranian exports to Russia barely reached $400 million. However, the implementation of Iran’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union in 2019 triggered a dramatic shift — exports surged by more than 60% in the first year alone.
FTA sparks export surge
According to Mirkarimi, Western sanctions and the withdrawal of several foreign competitors from the Russian market have further eased the path for Iranian goods. Last year marked the first time Iranian exports to Russia surpassed $1 billion, and that upward trajectory is expected to continue in 2025–2026.
Over 60% of Iran’s exports to Russia consist of food products, particularly winter fruits and vegetables sourced from southern Iran, filling a supply gap created by Russia’s limited domestic production during colder months, he said. “In recent years, the range of Iranian exports has also diversified significantly — beyond traditional items like dried fruits and tomato paste to include petrochemicals, plastics, chemicals, and even gas turbines.”
Mirkarimi added that more than 85% of traded goods between the two countries now benefit from zero-tariff treatment under the Eurasian FTA, a condition that, if sustained, could further deepen commercial cooperation.
Infrastructure investments bolster trade corridors
Significant infrastructure developments have facilitated this trade expansion, the joint chamber member said. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) has become more active, supported by substantial investments in rail, road, and port infrastructure. Additional measures include an increase in Caspian Sea shipping capacity and upgrades to customs facilities.
With Western markets largely closed to it, Russia has pivoted eastward and increasingly views Iran as a strategic transit route, Mirkarimi said, adding that this shift has intensified pressure on Iran’s southern ports, heightening the need for further infrastructure investment.
Banking relations have also improved, with most currency exchanges now conducted in rubles and rials to minimize reliance on the US dollar, he noted.
Barriers to bilateral trade
Despite favorable external conditions, Mirkarimi identified domestic regulatory hurdles that constrain Iranian traders from fully capitalizing on existing opportunities. Key among them are the multi-tiered foreign exchange rates and the complex, bureaucratic process for allocating foreign currency. Iranian importers, he noted, face long queues for access to foreign exchange — constraints that do not exist in Russia, where the exchange rate is market-determined and freely floating.
Strategies to boost exports
Enhancing Russian companies’ familiarity with Iranian products and strengthening Iran’s presence at prominent trade fairs in Russia are critical to expanding market share, he said. However, high exhibition costs have prompted calls for government-backed subsidies from institutions such as the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA), the Trade Promotion Organization (TPO), and the International Exhibitions Company.
Mirkarimi stressed the urgent need to establish an operational ICCIMA office in Moscow, which has not yet been realized but could serve as a vital support structure for Iranian private-sector exporters.
According to the chamber member, Iran faces stiff competition in the Russian market from countries like China, India, and Turkey — nations that have successfully promoted their goods and secured notable market shares. Mirkarimi argued that Iran possesses similar potential but requires the removal of restrictive, command-style economic policies to unlock its export capacity.
He underscored that boosting exports is especially vital given that many Iranian manufacturing units currently operate below capacity. Export growth, he said, can simultaneously generate foreign currency and stimulate domestic production.
With the recent signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Iran and Russia on January 17, 2025, the Russian market — particularly as a neighboring economy — represents one of Tehran’s most promising trade opportunities, Mirkarimi concluded.