Balancing engagement, leverage ...
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If Iran moves toward reducing cooperation or ramping up nuclear steps, the impact would quickly show up in agency reports, prompting Europe and the United States to rally broader support for pressure. Even if Russia and China maintain more cautious positions, the overall climate would grow tenser, pushing the file into a more difficult trajectory.
In essence, Iran’s choices will determine whether the dossier enters a cycle of mounting tensions and back-to-back resolutions or whether a gradual return to controlled cooperation remains possible.
How likely is it for Iran’s case will to be taken to the UN Security Council in the coming months?
A referral to the Security Council would only occur if several developments converge: sharply critical agency reports, a degree of Western consensus and a noticeable reduction in Iran’s cooperation that leaves little room for a technical defense of the file.
Currently, although Europe has adopted a tougher posture, a swift referral would also require either persuading Russia and China or at least avoiding firm opposition from them, a scenario that becomes plausible only if Iran-agency tensions reach a point where continuing within the Board of Governors looks untenable.
Over the next few months, the likelihood can be seen as “moderate to low”: not imminent, but not removed from Western calculations either. The path depends wholly on Iran-IAEA interaction. If technical reports worsen and cooperation ebbs, the chances of referral rise; but if managed technical engagement takes hold, Europeans will prefer to stick with agency mechanisms and avoid the costly dynamics of the Security Council.