Israel-Iran conflict ...
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Is the United States likely to become directly involved in a potential future conflict and in what form?
If Israel was to renew a direct assault on Iran, the Trump Administration could become involved, as it did with its airstrikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear complexes in June.
But I do not foresee the administration seeking this involvement. Its emphasis at the moment is on the ceasefire in Gaza, which involves limiting Israeli military for now.
More significant will be the administration’s attempt to restart a process of “normalization” between Arab states, including those in the Persian Gulf, and Israel. That will involve further maneuvers between the US and countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, in which Donald Trump and his family have large business investments.
How do you see the regional outlook after the Gaza-Israel agreement? Do you consider this agreement sustainable or fragile?
The Phase 1 of the ceasefire is shaky. It has already been broken twice by Israel, with the killing of more than 150 Gazans, and there are further Israeli attacks even as the ceasefire is supposedly restored. Only 24% of the aid mandated by Phase 1 is entering Gaza.
The declared Trump 20-point “plan” is only a sketch. That means there is a security vacuum in unoccupied areas of Gaza, which is filled by Hamas. This in turn means the Gazan group is unlikely to disarm.
It may be impossible to return the bodies of all the dead Israeli hostages, given the scale of destruction across the Strip. This will bolster the argument of hard-right ministers in the Netanyahu cabinet who want to renew the military assault.
And at this point, there is no sign of a Phase 2 for lasting arrangements for governance and security across Gaza. Nor is the scope of Israeli withdrawal clear.
Beyond Gaza, violence in the West Bank, including by Israeli settlers is escalating. The Netanyahu cabinet is likely to press ahead with the expansion of illegal settlements.