Israel-Iran conflict reshapes regional dynamics
Following years of simmering tensions and covert hostilities, Israel launched a direct military strike against Iran in June, marking a dramatic escalation in their long-standing enmity. Tehran responded with force, prompting the United States to intervene by targeting three of Iran’s principal nuclear facilities. A ceasefire was brokered on the twelfth day, as Washington sought to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a wider regional war.
This unprecedented confrontation has reverberated far beyond the immediate belligerents, reshaping strategic calculations across the Middle East.
In an exclusive interview with Iran Daily, Scott Lucas, a political analyst and a professor of American studies, draws a vivid analogy, describing the region’s geopolitics as a “kaleidoscope” constantly shifting in response to seismic events like the 12-day war. He explores the implications of the conflict in the following Q&A.
IRAN DAILY: How do you see the trajectory of regional developments in the Middle East after the Israeli aggression on Iran in June?
LUCAS: Geopolitics in Iran and the Middle East are like a kaleidoscope. An episode such as Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June will turn the situation, not just for the Islamic Republic and Israel but for other countries. And there will be other events that will also turn that kaleidoscope so we have new patterns of relationships.
From my perspective, Iran is now facing serious challenges, not just because of the war but also because of developments throughout the region since October 7, 2023. Hamas’ surprise and deadly attack inside Israel on that day, followed by two years of Israel’s mass killing inside Gaza, interacted with climactic events in other countries.
Hezbollah was decimated in Lebanon by Israeli strikes, losing almost all of its senior leadership. The Assad regime suddenly fell in Syria in December 2024. Yemen’s Ansar Allah has also been weakened by Israel’s aerial attacks. Iraq has avoided the worst of the violence, but is taking a political path in which Iran’s long-time influence is diminished.
Iran’s nuclear program was seriously damaged by the Israeli war. The extent of the damage is still being withheld by the Iranian leadership, but best analyses indicate that the program’s development has been set back by at least a year.
Perhaps more importantly, the Israeli attacks effectively ended Iran’s talks with the Trump Administration about a resolution of nuclear issues. With that path closed off and with Iran’s continued conflict with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Islamic Republic is facing the imposition of “snapback” sanctions. These will add to economic difficulties.
Do you believe Iran and Israel might enter another round of conflict? If so, how intense do you expect it to be?
I do not expect Iran to instigate direct conflict with Israel. Instead, the leadership will seek to rebuild its position in other countries primarily through diplomatic, political, and economic measures, apart from Yemen, where it may try to continue some support military assistance to Ansar Allah.
At this point, I do not expect Israel to launch another direct assault on Iran. The pretext of curbing the nuclear program has been removed by June’s damage. The Trump Administration is currently leaning on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push back hard-right ministers in his cabinet who decide further confrontation, amid the fragile halt to mass killing in Gaza.
Page 3