Crises in Afghanistan and question of Iran’s mediation
By Jafar Haghpanah
Afghanistan affairs expert
Contemporary Afghanistan has long struggled with recurring political and security crises that have undermined its internal cohesion and peaceful coexistence with neighboring states. Structural factors — such as its harsh and landlocked geopolitics, its mosaic of ethnic, linguistic, and religious communities closely tied to societies beyond its borders — combined with agency-driven dynamics, including the persistence of both traditional and modern elite power, an authoritarian political culture resistant to participation, and a strategic mindset among domestic and foreign actors that views war and intervention as solutions rather than sources of ongoing challenges, have all perpetuated and deepened the country’s chronic turmoil.
At times, however, the intensity of Afghanistan’s crises and their spillover effects have reached a level that compels international organizations and regional and global powers — even those whose prior interventions contributed to the current situation — to step in as mediators, not necessarily to find a final solution, but to manage and reduce the level of the crisis and prevent its escalation. Historically, successful mediation has come from states that enjoy good relations with both sides of a dispute.
This principle has once again proven true in the recent military standoff between Afghanistan’s caretaker government and Pakistan. The risk of full-blown war and regional destabilization pushed several countries to engage in mediation efforts. Through Qatar’s successful initiative, a temporary cease-fire was established between the two neighbors. Parallel talks are now underway in Turkey to reduce tensions further, though the road to a lasting agreement remains long. Qatar’s cordial relations with both Islamabad and the Taliban — along with its soft power and the influence of its media and think tanks in building trust — played a decisive role in its diplomatic success.
In this context, it is worth assessing Iran’s potential for mediation and examining why its role has been relatively understated, despite the direct and indirect implications of the Afghan-Pakistani conflict for Iran’s own national and regional security.
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