Lasting Iran-US rapprochement seems far-fetched
Diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States have been severed for decades, with the two nations widely regarded as arch-foes on the global stage. This long-standing hostility has largely manifested through Washington’s political, economic and military pressure, countered by Tehran’s policy of resistance. Yet, there have been moments of attempted détente, most notably the 2015 nuclear accord known as the JCPOA, followed by subsequent efforts to revive it after US President Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal in 2018. However, deep-seated differences between the two sides continue to stand in the way of any durable agreement. With tensions recently spilling over into military confrontation, the question remains: is animosity between Tehran and Washington an unchangeable feature of their relations, or is there still room, however narrow, for reconciliation or at least de-escalation? In an interview with Iran Daily, international affairs expert Afifeh Abedi argues that the history of Iran-US relations shows that hopes for a lasting compromise are overly optimistic and detached from reality. According to her, Iran’s most effective strategy lies in strengthening its power base and expanding strategic ties with other global players.
IRAN DAILY: Given the historical and structural rifts between Iran and the US, how realistic is it for Tehran to manage its relations with Washington without incurring political or economic costs?
ABEDI: It would be unrealistic to assume that Tehran can completely call the tune in its relationship with Washington. A relationship always involves two sides, and it is invariably shaped by the one that holds more cards politically, economically, and strategically. Naturally, in this case, that side is the United States.
What empowers Iran vis-à-vis the US is its will to resist and its ability to offset the pressures and costs imposed by Washington. This very resistance has, on several occasions, brought the US back to the negotiating table. Yet Washington has consistently sought to impose its will, one that it failed to enforce through war or open confrontation.
After the US reneged on the JCPOA, the recent 12-day conflict was another episode where Washington, while seated at the negotiating table with Tehran, allowed Israel, its proxy, to launch attacks against Iran. That experience was a costly but valuable lesson for Iran: even during negotiations, it must remain alert to new tricks up the enemy’s sleeve.
So, when we talk about managing relations or negotiating with the US, we must think in terms of parallel scenarios, even under a legally binding deal such as the JCPOA, which was endorsed by the UN Security Council. Iran must rely on a network of strategies to strengthen its position in relation to Washington. Alongside building up internal capacities, forging reliable strategic partnerships with other major powers is vital. Ties with the US should never come at the expense of Iran’s relations with its eastern partners, namely Russia and China.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stressed that Iran remains committed to diplomacy, though past experiences have deepened mistrust toward the US. What mechanisms could foster meaningful and confidence-building dialogue? Could intermediary institutions or phased agreements help?
Remember that the JCPOA was approved by the UN Security Council, yet the US walked away from it. Even Washington’s European allies criticized the withdrawal at the time, but the entrenched power dynamics and traditional alliances within the West ultimately pulled them into line with Washington’s stance.
We must realize that this is essentially a power game. Even if you secure a treaty or a UN-backed resolution with the US, Washington can, through various ploys and maneuvers, push you into behavior that justifies its own hostile approach and eventually place you under more pressure or even threat of military action.
How can Iran, while safeguarding its national principles and interests, engage constructively with the US? What elements should shape its foreign policy to preserve independence while keeping dialogue open?
Iran has repeatedly tested negotiations with the US, only to be met with betrayal. It has even tried unilateral cooperation with Washington in Afghanistan and Iraq, but again faced hostile conduct. Still, we must acknowledge that the US remains an undeniable global player, and there may be times when tactical or even strategic talks are unavoidable.
Page 3