Ifs & buts of new order in Mideast after October 7
By Rahman Ghahremanpour
International affairs analyst
The debate over establishing a new regional order in the Middle East has once again taken center stage, particularly after the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit and the Gaza peace agreement. While the idea itself is hardly new, the United States appears eager to test its luck once more, convinced that, after the October 7 attacks, conditions have been set for shifting the regional balance of power in favor of Washington and its allies in the Middle East.
Since the end of the Cold War, the notion of a “new Middle East order” has surfaced repeatedly on the agendas of both US and European policymakers. Yet every time, it has run into major obstacles, ultimately failing to materialize. Today, doubts about the feasibility of such an order remain as serious as ever.
The foremost obstacle is Washington’s lack of balance in its foreign policy toward Israel and the Arab world. The US has never maintained an even-handed approach to the Palestinian issue. Instead, it has offered unwavering political, military, and diplomatic support to Israel, routinely vetoing UN Security Council resolutions critical of Tel Aviv. The result has been deep and lasting mistrust among Arab nations, who believe the unbreakable and special relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv makes any balanced American policy in the region impossible.
A second major obstacle lies in the regional dynamics that have defined the Middle East over the past three decades. The emergence of the Axis of Resistance has been among the most significant following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which, paradoxically, only strengthened this axis and empowered contrary to US intentions. The rise of this coalition seriously challenged Washington’s Middle East policies and put forward a new solution to the Palestinian issue from the perspective of political Islam. In many ways, the October 7 operation was a concerted effort to weaken this axis and its approach to the historic Palestinian issue.
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