Egypt steers clear of ‘all or nothing’ approach with Israel despite recent brawl
By Hojjatollah Joudaki
Middle East affairs expert
Considering Egypt’s changing tone toward Israel following the September 9 attack on Qatar — including President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s use of the word “enemy” for the first time since taking office in 2014 — the question arises: could this shift signal the end of Cairo’s restraint since the Gaza war and the beginning of a phase of direct confrontation with Tel Aviv?
In analyzing the issue, one should take note of Egypt’s longstanding mastery of diplomacy and its consistent use of maneuvers throughout history. This does not mean, however, that they have overnight changed tack in their strategy. Rather, such moves are routine in Egyptian politics, where contradictory stances have often been taken. Egypt carries more than 70 years of experience in its conflict with Israel and understands precisely what Israel is and how it acts. In fact, Egypt is the only country that truly knows Israel inside out. Since 1967, when former president Gamal Abdel Nasser was defeated in the war with Israel, Cairo realized the need for a systematic study of Israel and drew upon its universities to build that knowledge.
Since then, a monthly journal titled Mokhtarat Israiliyah — meaning “Excerpts on Israel” — has been published in Egypt, a tradition that continues to this day. With up to 400 academics involved in the effort, Egypt has maintained a close watch on Israel and politics for decades. This depth of knowledge has given Egypt an ability not only to anticipate Israeli moves but also to prevent them. Because of this foresight, Egypt avoids taking an “all or nothing” approach. It knows precisely when to back down, when to stand firm, and when to use strong rhetoric.
Even signs, such as the delayed appointment of Egypt’s new ambassador to Israel and the postponement of granting credentials to Orie Rotman, Israel’s new envoy to Cairo, should not be read as a downgrading of relations. Instead, they represent a form of diplomatic game. This type of maneuver is not unusual and resembles Iran’s summoning of the French, German, and British ambassadors for consultation after the snapback of UN sanctions against Tehran in late September. Diplomatic games of this kind are always read in different ways, and there is nothing out of the ordinary about them.
Nevertheless, despite the peace treaty between Cairo and Tel Aviv, Israeli provocations in the region continue to have a direct impact on Cairo. These include threats to transfer Palestinian refugees into the Sinai Peninsula, warnings about targeting Hamas leaders on Egyptian soil, and expansionist policies such as promoting the idea of “Greater Israel.” Such provocations have raised speculations that a military clash between the two countries could be on the horizon.
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