Israeli strike on ...
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A similar trend could unfold now, especially given China’s rapid advances in military technology, displayed in its recent parade.
At the same time, Persian Gulf Arab states’ attitudes toward Iran may soften. For years, Tehran has warned that “security cannot be bought” and argued that true stability must be home-grown, secured by the countries of the region themselves. The events in Qatar have, in some ways, vindicated that narrative. While the depth of any shift in Persian Gulf perceptions of Iran remains to be seen, the attack has opened the door to a more nuanced view of Tehran than in the past.
Do you think this incident will affect the normalization process with Israel? Will it block or delay it?
Without doubt, the Abraham Accords were already under pressure after the events in the Gaza Strip and the wave of global condemnation directed at Israel. That made normalization a tough sell for any government, let alone Arab or Islamic states. Now, after this unprecedented attack on an Arab country, Israel is trying to cast itself as a regional hegemon, even speaking of a “Greater Middle East” project. In this context, the push for normalization is bound to lose steam.
We have already seen the UAE, a signatory of the accords, scale back its ties with Israel, suspending Israeli participation in the Dubai Air Show, for example. The implications will now spread much further. For Persian Gulf Arab states, security has always been the top priority, and that trust has now been badly shaken.
The entire premise of the Abraham Accords was that Israel would be a partner and Iran the common enemy, with Israel offering protection against Tehran’s alleged hegemonic ambitions. This strike has turned that narrative on its head. Setting aside the atrocities and genocide in Gaza, any state seeking to normalize with Israel must also convince its own public opinion. The Qatar strike is a genuine game changer, not only for regional security debates but for the very peace frameworks being promoted.
Given that Israel targeted Hamas leaders in Doha, what future do you foresee for Hamas’s political bureau in Qatar?
Qatar’s hosting of Hamas leaders was never merely a small-state policy choice—it was part of an international understanding that Doha would act as a channel for dialogue. Qatar has long been something of an exception in the Middle East: maintaining close ties with Iran, excellent relations with the United States, informal links with Israel, and intimacy with Hamas. Its unique position as a mediator was recognized internationally.
Israel has now torn up that unwritten agreement, undermining a consensus that even NATO members such as France, the UK and Canada condemned in the strongest terms. Qatar also hosted Taliban leaders, and much of the Afghan transition process took place through talks facilitated in Doha.
Ultimately, it will be for Qatar to decide whether to continue down this path. That will depend on whether Doha can secure guarantees from the international community—be it the West, NATO or the UN. Israel, for its part, has already made clear it sees no restraints on targeting Hamas leaders. Given how central security concerns are for Qatar and the Persian Gulf Arab states, hosting Hamas’s leadership is likely to be scaled back significantly, or else continued in a much more limited form under international guarantees.