Israeli strike on Qatar to prompt Arab States to rethink security ties
Following an unprecedented Israeli airstrike on Qatar on September 9 to assassinate senior Hamas officials, Doha convened an emergency summit of Islamic leaders. The attack took place despite Qatar being a key US ally and home to Washington’s largest military base in the region. The silence, and in the view of some analysts, tacit complicity of the US, has raised alarm bells among America’s Arab partners. The extraordinary summit is seen as a litmus test for Islamic solidarity in the face of unfolding developments and a possible redefinition of both regional and extra-regional alignments.
In an interview with Omid Khazani, a university lecturer and international affairs analyst, Iran Daily, weighed in on the implications:
IRAN DAILY: Do you believe Israel’s strike on Qatar, a close US ally, could shift the outlook of Arab states in the Persian Gulf that have military pacts with Washington?
KHAZANI: The Israeli strike is significant on several fronts. Qatar has long been regarded as one of America’s close partners in the Middle East, hosting the US Central Command and the largest American airbase in the region. For three decades it also maintained a form of unofficial, non-aggression understanding with Israel—without formal diplomatic ties. Yet this did not stop Israel from targeting Qatar.
This raises tough questions for the seven Persian Gulf Arab states about how much they can really count on Washington. A key issue is why the US, despite having the most advanced air-warning systems at its Qatar base, failed to intercept the attack. Questions are now being asked: was Washington aware of the strike, and did it tacitly approve it? It is almost unthinkable that such aggression took place without US knowledge, given the number of American personnel and citizens on Qatari soil.
Washington has claimed it was informed too late to act and could not pass on a timely warning to the Qataris. But this explanation will only fuel doubts among Persian Gulf states about the reliability of US security guarantees. The situation is reminiscent of the major assault on [Saudi Arabia’s] Aramco during Donald Trump’s first term, when Washington refrained from retaliation.
Given that Qatar was the destination of the US president’s second official foreign trip, the symbolism makes this strike even weightier than the Aramco attack. The fallout will be substantial. Still, whether Qatar or its Persian Gulf neighbors will undergo a paradigm shift in relations with Washington is doubtful. They are unlikely to abandon their US alliance outright, as their security still depends heavily on it. However, cracks have appeared, and these states are now expected to diversify their “security portfolio” by also turning an eye eastward, in particular toward China.
China has been pouring major investments into the Persian Gulf, and such economic commitments often come with implicit security guarantees. Persian Gulf capitals are likely to explore Beijing as an additional pillar of security, much as Saudi Arabia, in the wake of the Aramco strike, invited Russia for talks and expressed interest in purchasing Russian weaponry.
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