Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal
Ignoring Iran’s role could turn accord into new battleground
By Afifeh Abedi
International affairs analyst
Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan signed a peace agreement on Friday evening, local time, in a ceremony at the White House attended by US President Donald Trump. The accord aims to strengthen bilateral economic ties after decades of conflict and to move toward full normalization of relations. During the signing ceremony, Trump announced both sides’ commitment to “stop all fighting forever.”
Yet the history of the South Caucasus has shown that the ethnic, religious, and territorial disputes in this region run so deep that even a comprehensive, detailed political agreement is unlikely to settle them entirely on its own. Even international agreements backed by major powers—without mutual trust and effective monitoring mechanisms—run the risk of collapse or a return to cycles of tension. From this perspective, proclaiming a permanent end to hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia appears more as a display of political and diplomatic optimism than a reflection of an enduring reality, and will still need to stand the test of practical implementation.
US mediation and oversight of the agreement’s implementation have added a new layer of geopolitical competition to the South Caucasus. Part of Washington’s role goes beyond sole diplomacy, tying directly into safeguarding the interests of multinational corporations and the potential deployment of US-linked military assets in the region. Such developments are naturally alarming for Russia—which views the Caucasus as part of its traditional sphere of influence—and could tip the balance of power in the region. However, with Moscow’s resources and focus constrained by the war in Ukraine, much of the responsibility for countering these shifts in regional balance has effectively fallen on Iran.
This situation presents Tehran with a complex and multi-layered challenge, requiring shrewd diplomacy, tactical flexibility, and a careful balancing of relations with both Eastern and Western power blocs. Consistent with its foreign policy tradition, Iran prefers to see Russia’s influence in the Caucasus maintained and to prevent any expansion of Western—particularly direct US military—presence, which could undermine Iran’s geopolitical and economic interests.
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