Public support remains central to Iran’s deterrence against foreign threats
By Shahin Sadeghi-Nasab
Political analyst
Public backing and social capital remain the most critical elements of Iran’s deterrence strategy against foreign threats—often compensating for shortcomings in economic or military strength.
Deterrence is a multi-layered concept and should not be reduced solely to military capability. While Iran’s military deterrence—especially its ability to deliver punishing retaliatory strikes—is a key pillar of national defense, it is not the whole story.
A vital but often overlooked component of deterrence lies in the economic sphere. Economic deterrence refers to a nation’s deep integration into the global economy, where the vested interests of multiple international stakeholders act as a buffer against military aggression. Countries with diverse trade ties are less likely to be targeted, as their stability directly impacts the interests of other nations.
In this regard, Iran faces serious challenges. Economic isolation and limited trade have kept the country from achieving an effective level of economic deterrence. This isolation remains one of Iran’s most significant vulnerabilities in the face of external threats. As President Masoud Pezeshkian has emphasized, until the Islamic Republic resolves key issues with the United States and certain Western nations, breaking free from economic siege will remain out of reach and the continuation of this status quo poses a major threat to national security.
Another pillar of deterrence is social capital—the strength of the relationship between the people and the state. The greater the public trust and cohesion, the stronger the nation’s deterrent posture becomes. Social capital is reflected in widespread support for the governing system. During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, despite having limited military and economic resources, the Iranian people—believing in a government rooted in their own will—stood firm against a global coalition and did not allow a single inch of their territory to fall.
The same principle holds true today. Even amid potential weaknesses in other areas, robust public backing remains a formidable barrier to any foreign aggressor. Public presence in rallies, national ceremonies, religious events, and elections signals a unified and resolute nation—sending a clear message to adversaries that the Iranian people stand unwavering in defense of their homeland
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