Talks with Europe ...
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In practice, the snapback of sanctions becomes a bargaining chip for Europe in its dealings with the US, particularly in extracting favors from the Trump administration. They are expected to make full use of it.
Walking away from the negotiating table is not a rational move. Iran must keep the doors to dialogue open. Negotiation should not be equated with weakness or surrender—as some voices inside Iran claim—but rather seen as a tool to protect and promote national interests on the global stage.
Whether engagement with Europe is minimal or comprehensive matters less than whether it is built around preconditions that safeguard Iran’s national interests. Talks with Europe can be constructive, but given the recent developments, both the strategy and substance of these negotiations require reassessment. European governments have the capacity to rally consensus against Iran and to weaponize international law to apply pressure. Tehran must act smartly to counteract these efforts.
Still, dialogue with Europe remains secondary. The primary channel—based on the discretion of Iranian officials—is the negotiation track with the United States. If those talks progress positively, engagement with Europe will naturally fall into place or perhaps even become less significant. Any dialogue with European actors, including the prerequisites involved, should be considered a subset of the broader US–Iran negotiation track. The real focus of Iran’s preconditions should be the US, not Europe.
Politics is the art of possibilities, and while the outlook for Iran-Europe relations is not entirely bleak, optimism at this stage seems largely unwarranted— unless meaningful negotiations with European nations can be held on key issues. Still, it bears repeating that any deal with the US carries greater weight, and any talks with Europe should be seen as secondary to that primary track
Should progress be made in negotiations with the US—a matter ultimately determined by Iran’s leadership—positive ripple effects could be expected in Tehran’s relations with Europe as well. Otherwise, the European trio is expected to remain in lockstep with US policy, advancing the broader Western agenda against Iran in a coordinated manner.