IMF forecasts $1.7t Iranian economy with $51b growth in 2025
The International Monetary Fund, in its review of the outlook for 13 key macroeconomic indicators of Iran's economy for the current year, has forecast a $1.7 trillion economy for Iran this year, reflecting a $51 billion increase in the value of Iran's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the previous year.
The IMF, in a report, has analyzed the outlook for Iran's economy in the new calendar year and announced its projections for 13 key macroeconomic indicators of Iran for this year, Tasnim reported.
Based on projections by the IMF, Iran's economy will reach $1.7 trillion in the current calendar year, and the value of Iran's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in this year will reach $1.746 trillion, reflecting a $51 billion increase compared to the previous year.
However, the per capita GDP based on PPP, which was $17,222 in 2024, will decrease to $17,103 in 2025.
The fund has projected that the value of Iran's Gross Domestic Product based on current prices will decrease by $60 billion in 2025 compared to 2024, falling from $401 billion in 2024 to $341 billion in 2025.
The IMF further forecasts a positive current account balance for Iran of $3 billion for the year. This projection indicates an expected surplus in the country's international transactions for goods, services, and primary income.
This report expects Iran's economic growth rate to approach zero in 2025. While Iran's economy experienced 3.4% growth in 2024, it is projected to grow by only 0.3% in 2025.
Iran's inflation rate was 32.6% in the past calendar year. The fund has projected that this figure will increase to 43.3% in 2025.
Whereas Iran's exports of goods and services grew by 4.6% in 2024 according to IMF estimates, the financial institution expects Iran's exports of goods and services to decline by 5% in 2025. Conversely, Iran's imports of goods and services, which grew by 10.6% last year, will decrease by 9.6% in the new year.
Iran's current account balance in 2025 will be $7.9 billion less than in 2024, reaching $3 billion. In the previous year, the figure was estimated at $10.9 billion.
The international institution has also projected that Iran's unemployment rate in the new year will be higher than the previous year, reaching 9.5%. Iran's unemployment rate was calculated at 7.7% in 2024.
According to this report, the Iranian government's revenue, which was equivalent to 10.6% of GDP in 2024, will reach 9.5% of GDP in the current year. Meanwhile, government expenditures will increase slightly, rising from 14.7% of GDP in 2024 to 14.9% of GDP in 2025.
Iran's gross government debt will also increase in 2025, rising from 36.8% of GDP last year to 39.9% in the current calendar year.
Total investments in Iran's economy during the previous year were equivalent to 39% of the country's GDP. Based on the internation fund's projection, the figure will remain unchanged at the same level in 2025.