Ukraine’s Spiderweb; offensive...
Page 1
A military official with Ukraine’s Security Service, who spoke with The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, said it was an “extremely complex” operation, involving the smuggling of drones to Russia, where they were placed in mobile wooden houses.
“Drones were hidden under the roofs of these houses while already placed on trucks. At the right moment, the roofs of the houses were remotely opened, and the drones flew to hit Russian bombers,” the official said, adding that the targets included A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22M aircraft.
Ukraine’s Security Service said Operation Spiderweb had destroyed 34% of Russia’s fleet of air missile carriers, with damages estimated at $7 billion.
Russia’s Defense Ministry in a statement confirmed the attacks, saying the drone onslaught damaged aircraft and sparked fires on air bases in the Irkutsk region in Siberia, more than 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine, as well as the Murmansk region in the north.
The ministry also said “most” of the Ukrainian strikes were repelled in the Amur region in Russia’s Far East and in the western regions of Ivanovo and Ryazan.
Earlier in the day, Ukraine’s air force announced that Russia had launched the biggest number of drones — 472 — on Ukraine since its full-scale “special operation” in February 2022.
Ukraine’s army also said at least 12 Ukrainian service members had been killed and more than 60 injured in a Russian missile strike on an army training unit.
At its core, Ukraine’s move appears to be a calculated offensive aimed at targeting Russia’s supply lines, command centers, and logistical hubs, seeking to strike critical nodes that sustain Russian operations and blunting their tempo.
The timing and scale of the operation suggest that Kiev is not merely defending but aiming to seize the initiative and take the fight to the enemy’s doorstep. On the other hand, Moscow is also cranking up strikes to put the enemy in its place.
The operation bears a message that Ukraine is not lying down on the job but rather doubling down on its resolve to reclaim sovereignty and territorial integrity, also challenging Moscow’s narrative of inevitability regarding its all-time military dominance.
Given that Moscow has on numerous occasions emphasized that any attack on its territory or assets will cross “red lines,” the Kremlin’s potential retaliation is likely to be swift, multifaceted, and designed to reassert dominance while deterring further Ukrainian advances.
One probable way of Russian response is a military escalation, including an upswing in artillery bombardments, air strikes, or even launching counteroffensives along the front lines. Russian forces may also increase the deployment of elite units or mobilize additional reserves to slow Ukraine’s momentum, signaling that any Ukrainian gains will come at a high cost.
Sleeping on conventional military retaliations, Moscow is also expected to ramp up hybrid warfare tactics and use cyberattacks by targeting Ukrainian communications networks. Disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and sowing discord among its allies will likely accompany such cyber efforts.
Simultaneously, the Kremlin might embark on deepening alliances with other global powers to isolate Kiev diplomatically with the aim of driving a wedge between Ukraine and its Western sympathizers.
In the worst-case scenario, Russia may increase nuclear posturing through military exercises and strategic deployments to remind the world of the high stakes involved, complicating Kiev’s and its allies’ calculus.
The West is poised to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and economically but remains wary of direct confrontation with Russia, walking a tightrope at a time that missteps could ratchet up the conflict beyond the region.
There seems to be that diplomatic efforts to de-escalate Kiev-Moscow tensions will be a sine qua non to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control as both sides are engaged in a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, where each action risks triggering disproportionate responses.
The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining the upshot of what is coming to pass in Ukrainian and Russian military think tanks.پ