Gaza paying price ...
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Given internal Israeli dynamics, there is a strong chance Netanyahu might shift gears from the Gaza offensive to an extensive campaign in the West Bank instead. Looking at Israel’s military history, only a few wars, like the 1967 War, stand out as unequivocal victories.
Conversely, more contentious or drawn-out conflicts, such as the 1973 Yom Kippur War, initially caught Israel off guard, though success eventually followed. Yet, in its aftermath, a fact-finding committee led to the political retirement of then prime minister Golda Meir. Similarly, after the 2006 Lebanon War, which Israel failed to wrap up successfully, the Winograd Commission was set up, and then prime minister Ehud Olmert, in an attempt to divert the heat, launched the 22-day Gaza war. That, too, ended poorly, and Olmert, like Meir, was politically sidelined, never returning to the electoral field and forced out of his party.
This context is highly significant. Netanyahu now faces a parallel moment. By his own admission, Israel was blindsided on October 7, 2023. That element of surprise has ignited intense domestic pressure for a fact-finding panel. For nearly seven months, demands had been mounting, but Netanyahu refused, dodging accountability by leaning on the pretext of a “wartime emergency.” He might eventually agree to a cease-fire in Gaza, but this would not spell the end of hostilities, rather it would only signal a change in battleground, with operations potentially shifting to the West Bank or Lebanon.
Netanyahu needs war to politically survive, either in the Gaza Strip or the West Bank. Even his recent declaration, in which he said he would go ahead with a cease-fire if Hamas accepts Trump’s relocation plan for Gaza, is more tactical than genuine. It is designed not to reject Trump outright but rather to maintain his support, knowing full well Hamas is unlikely to accept a proposal that contradicts its narrative of Gaza as Palestinian territory.
Israel’s blueprint for Gaza is becoming clearer. It wants to force Palestinians out of Gaza even through its so-called aid distribution plan that forces residents to register in certain areas and then receive humanitarian aid. This framework seeks to lay the groundwork for Israel’s occupation of Gaza indefinitely.