‘Serious alarm’: Iran facing drop in birth rate
Iran’s birth rate has hit a historic low, dropping 7.4% over the past Persian calendar year, Vice President for Executive Affairs Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah warned Monday, calling it a “serious alarm” for the nation’s future.
At a National Population Day event in Tehran, Ghaempanah revealed that fewer than one million births were recorded last year, with total fertility falling to 1.44—far below the replacement level of 2.1, Tasnim News Agency reported.
“The statistics and figures indicate the decline of the productive population,” he said, warning of “irreversible” consequences if the trend continues.
The warning comes amid new national survey results showing that nearly 78% of married Iranians of childbearing age have no desire to have children.
Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, Secretary of the National Population Task Force, presented the findings Monday, noting that this sharp reluctance stems mainly from “worry about the future” of potential children.
Economic insecurity, housing shortages, and job instability were cited as key reasons couples are choosing not to grow their families. “This decline is no longer due to disease or disaster,” Dastjerdi said. “It’s driven by human will.”
The country is also aging fast. Officials project the proportion of citizens over 65 could jump from 10.4% to 26.5% within 25 years, making Iran potentially the oldest population in the region.
The average age of first marriage—28 for men and 24 for women—is climbing, and officials are calling for plans to reverse that trend. The drop in population is viewed not just as a demographic issue but also as a national security concern. A shrinking population in a region with growing neighbors, Dastjerdi warned, could disrupt the “balance of power.”
While the government has focused on boosting quantity, officials now stress improving quality too, with calls to invest in maternal care, early childhood health, and education.
Ghaempanah also slammed previous policies banning fetal screening, calling them “unscientific” and counterproductive.
“There needs to be hope,” he said. Without it, families won’t take the leap.