Middle East in 2025
Regional reactions to US-Iran talks
In the spring of 2025, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Middle East has once again taken center stage in global geopolitics. Ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington — mediated by Oman in Muscat and Rome — have sparked speculation about a potential security-economic deal. Unlike Trump’s first term, marked by the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and “maximum pressure” policy, his second-term pragmatism — aimed at countering China, managing energy crises, and reducing military costs — has opened up space for dialogue with Iran.
However, in a region where every diplomatic shift has multi-layered consequences, how are neighboring countries reacting to these talks? From Baghdad to Baku, Kabul to Doha, states are weighing up the opportunities and threats of a potential deal. Below is an analysis of regional perspectives:
Iraq, caught between Tehran and Washington, is keeping a close eye on the talks. A deal lifting sanctions could boost Iranian energy, electricity, and consumer goods exports to Iraq, aiding Baghdad’s fragile economy. However, Trump’s “America First” policy may scale back US military presence, creating a power vacuum that could favor Iran or draw in rivals like Turkey.
The Taliban-led Afghanistan, isolated globally, cautiously follows the talks. Sanctions relief could allow Iran to serve as Afghanistan’s transit gateway via Chabahar Port and the North-South Corridor. However, ISIS-K threats and lack of US-Taliban engagement hold back progress.
Pakistan sees both promise and risk. A revived Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline could cut down its reliance on expensive fuels, but closer Iran-US ties may upset Islamabad’s traditional balancing act with Washington, especially vis-à-vis India. Security concerns in Balochistan further complicate matters.
Baku views a stronger Iran as a threat to its Zangezur Corridor ambitions. With Russia’s influence waning post-Ukraine war, Iran may step up as a mediator in Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions, unsettling Baku.
Yerevan welcomes a potential deal, hoping for enhanced trade and reduced isolation via Iranian transit routes. However, it must juggle relations with Russia, which may look unfavorably on Tehran’s Western outreach.
Ankara watches the talks closely. Reduced tensions could bring about energy and transit cooperation, but a stronger Iran complicates Turkish ambitions in Syria, Iraq, and the Caucasus.
Ashgabat eyes economic benefits, such as revived gas exports via Iran to Europe, while staying out of geopolitical rivalries.
Riyadh is worried that a stronger Iran may upset the Persian Gulf balance in favor of Iran but may team up with Tehran on OPEC policies. The UAE seeks trade opportunities but sticks with its ties with the West. Qatar and Oman could mediate economically and diplomatically. Bahrain, being close to Saudi Arabia and the US, views the talks as a threat to its national security.
Tel Aviv sees Iran as an existential threat and may lobby Washington to limit any deal while ramping up military cooperation with the Persian Gulf states.
The 2025 Tehran-Washington talks represent a potential turning point for the Middle East. Success hinges on Iran’s ability to balance regional rivalries while engaging globally. Neighboring states must decide whether to embrace diplomacy or push back — a choice that will shape the region’s future.
The article is a summary of an
op-ed published on Sad Online.