What will digital war do to world?
Techno-geopolitics, by influencing traditional patterns of global competition, has brought about significant transformations in the realm of digital technologies and geo-economic rivalries. In this context, China, the United States, and the European Union are striving to leverage new tools to dominate the future global order. The pursuit of technological superiority has turned into a new arena of competition among global powers, particularly China, the United States, and the European Union. Mastery over advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), microelectronics, big data, machine learning, and quantum information systems ultimately shapes and solidifies the international balance of power. Global powers are determined to develop technological capabilities to gain a strategic advantage in their broader competition. The development of such capabilities has been prioritized as a national strategy by global powers and is pursued at the highest levels of government. These powers have realized and emphasized the importance of achieving technological superiority in terms of economic development, national security, and international competition. This has led scholars Saeed Pirmohammadi, Mehdi Hedayati Shahidani, and Amir Niakooee to write an academic paper, titled “Technogeopolitics and the Change of Traditional Global Patterns in Digital Technologies: A Strategic Vision for Iran”. In that paper, a summary of which is given below, they sought to examine the potential relationship between techno-geopolitics and the transformation of traditional global patterns in digital technologies, using a comparative study method and data analysis.
Geo-economic competitions in future
Technology is at the core of geo-economic competitions in the future international system. Therefore, it is generally argued that success and superiority in shaping the future world order depend on staying at the cutting edge of technology. Among the most important advantage-generating technologies are artificial intelligence, hypersonic technologies, quantum computing, the Internet of Things, and others, whose emergence has transformed the nature of competition among major powers.
Geo-economic competitions for dominance over new multipurpose technologies based on big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence influence the structure and patterns of interaction and agency of countries in regional and international environments. The competition among global powers in the technological domain, particularly in artificial intelligence, is a multidimensional rivalry encompassing technological, economic, military, and political spheres.
Much of this competition currently revolves around the United States and China; thus, further in-depth research is required in this regard. The European Union also emphasizes the critical importance of sensitive and multipurpose technologies in strengthening technological sovereignty and reducing strategic dependencies among its members.
What is techno-geopolitics?
Techno-geopolitics, or the geopolitics of technology, as the name suggests, examines the relationship between “technology” and “geopolitics”. As a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, technological capabilities and dimensions have gained a special place at the forefront of the competition of global powers.
In traditional definitions, power was defined by geography and control over territory or oceans, whereas, based on the new definition, power is measured and evaluated by the ability to influence social capital; control goods, money, and data; and exploit the connections that technology enables.
Thus, any interaction between countries — over issues ranging from energy to information technology standards — becomes a tool of geopolitics. The new concept of techno-geopolitics requires further elaboration. Introducing this concept clearly demonstrates the ever-solidifying link between the technological capabilities of countries and their national security and geopolitical power. At a macro and strategic level, techno-geopolitics examines the contemporary relations between the United States and China — and to some extent the European Union — and the future of global cybersecurity through the lenses of geopolitics and financial-technological competition.
Competition of global powers over AI techs
In general, technology has always been a critical element in shifting the balance of power. Since the competition among major powers revolves around the relative distribution of power, controlling and developing new technologies can influence the dimensions of global power competition. There are numerous historical examples of this. For instance, during the agricultural age, tools such as the chariot, saddle, stirrup, and similar equipment were considered advantage-generating tools. Over time, in the industrial age, nuclear warheads, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, combustion engines, submarines, and missile defense systems became significant. In this context, missile superiority can sometimes alter the balance of power among major powers. This is particularly impactful when missile capabilities are combined with advanced technologies and a strong economy.
According to many experts, technology is currently the most important and decisive arena of competition among global powers, and artificial intelligence is the main axis of competition between the two sides. The prevailing view among American elites is that AI could turn China into a greater strategic threat. Despite significant advancements by Chinese companies in artificial intelligence, technological dependence on Western and American companies remains evident.
New forms of espionage devices
Some American legislators have expressed concerns that China is using AI-generated deepfakes to disseminate false political information and influence public opinion within the United States, particularly during critical moments such as presidential and congressional elections. Compared to traditional threats, new forms of espionage and counter-espionage devices and systems that utilize artificial intelligence are far more complex and extensive; tracking and countering them is extremely difficult, and they can easily infiltrate the critical infrastructure of target countries for extended periods.
Competition in field of advanced chips
The CHIPS and Science Act was passed in the United States in August 2022. When president Biden signed that $52 billion law, he highlighted an issue that many had overlooked: the critical importance of semiconductors. Joe Biden stated during the signing ceremony, “These tiny little computer chips are the building blocks of the modern economy.”
The law prohibits semiconductor companies from exporting advanced chips to China and increases pressure on China to develop domestic production capabilities. The equation is quite clear; companies intending to export AI chips to China or other sanctioned regions must inform the US government. These sanctions also apply to companies headquartered in China or other sanctioned regions with branches in other countries. Therefore, this competition must be analyzed at a strategic level, far beyond superficial layers.
Huawei–Open RAN techno-geopolitical dualism
Concerns that the Chinese company Huawei might dominate 5G technology are among the primary worries of American officials. This Chinese giant, alongside Sweden’s Ericsson, Finland’s Nokia, and China’s ZTE, controls about 27% of the global market revenue for 5G network equipment.
While Huawei dominates many older telecommunications infrastructures in the developing world and the Global South, it relies on Western technology to provide 5G services. China’s mastery over building 5G networks has given it a strategic advantage in technological competition with the United States. The United States does not have a strategic counterpart to Huawei, the global leader in building 5G networks.
New restrictions against competing platforms
Washington and Beijing have sought to deploy their domestic operating systems in pursuit of geopolitical and geo-economic objectives. TikTok, as China’s first global internet platform, plays a pivotal role in expanding China’s digital influence worldwide, including in the United States.
This platform has become a reference for news, particularly among American youth, and many businesses rely on it to expand their trade. It is important to note that TikTok’s entry into the broader technological competition between the United States and China is part of Washington’s efforts to neutralize potential foreign influence campaigns.
Competition for technological influence in geopolitical regions
In 2013, Beijing introduced the Digital Silk Road as part of the mega-project Belt and Road initiative. This plan focused on supporting Chinese tech giants in expanding their overseas activities. Based on this, the activities of Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba expanded beyond the domestic sphere to the international arena. This initiative, through the expansion of digital technologies in the geopolitical regions of developing countries or the Global South, poses challenges to US technological dominance.
In general, competition in the export of AI-related technologies between China and the United States is ongoing. European countries have largely opted for the more expensive yet more secure American systems, while poorer countries, primarily in Africa and the Indo-Pacific, are drawn to the Digital Silk Road initiatives.
Competing over technological raw materials
Technological competition among global powers will continue for a long time. Although conflicts over technological superiority between the United States (alongside Europe, Japan, and Taiwan) and China will intensify, a full-scale confrontation between the two sides seems unlikely due to the interconnectedness of the global digital economy.
Domestically, China is committed to accelerating scientific advancements. Through strengthening self-reliance in AI and chip manufacturing, it seeks to balance against the technological superiority of the United States and its aligned coalition in Europe and East Asia.
Internationally, China supports multilateral arrangements, including with the United Nations, to play a leading role in global AI governance — a move that could marginalize the United States. The United States, leveraging its institutional and consensus-building powers, will strive to limit China’s actions and progress in the technological domain.
Techno-geopolitical competition in military sphere
It is evident that China’s use of AI in the military sphere is a pressing national security concern for the United States. China considers AI crucial for modern warfare. China’s focus on “intelligent warfare” reflects a shift in its military strategy, emphasizing the extensive use of AI at all levels of conflict, from planning and intelligence to operations. AI also plays a key role in achieving China’s overarching goal of becoming a “world-class military” through the “intelligentization” of its armed forces.
Techno-geopolitical alignments in the military sector between the United States and China are gradually emerging. In Australia, engineers are working on the Ghost Shark submarine, which operates with AI and has no human crew. This project is part of the competition between the United States and its allies against China over the development of AI-controlled weapons. Thus, the AI military revolution unfolds within the framework of US-China techno-geopolitical competition and shapes the future of global equations. Success in this grand competition requires maintaining technological advantages and intelligently adapting them to geopolitical spheres of influence.
Strategic outlook for Iran
Remarkable advancements in the technological domain, as well as global competition in this field, can create strategic opportunities for other countries. Information systems based on technology can categorize vast amounts of data from various geographical locations to identify patterns and highlight useful information. Thus, they provide decision-makers with more useful and higher-quality information at a faster pace. Moreover, various technology-driven software can play a key role in information warfare operations by surveying and analyzing public opinion through social media data. The capacity of technology, in general, and AI, in particular, to produce unconventional outcomes in the military domain is also considered a strategic advantage. The unpredictability of technology leads to miscalculations by the opposing side.
Iran will be one of the primary targets of US sanctions policies in digital technologies, including halting the export of advanced microchips and slowing the development of related sensitive technologies. However, building domestic capacity while leveraging foreign experiences — through optimizing policies and simultaneously considering opportunities and constraints — ensures success in this regard.
The achievements of strategic partners such as China and Russia, with whom Iran’s defense diplomacy has made significant progress, should be utilized. Among neighbors as well, given the progress made and the priorities outlined, there is ample room for maneuver and movement to expand Iran’s digital diplomacy.
In practical terms, Iran has recently moved beyond the stage of drafting a national document and establishing a relevant domestic organization and authority in the field of AI. According to the National Artificial Intelligence Document approved in 2022, the goal is to be among the top 10 leading countries in AI by 2031. The National Artificial Intelligence Organization is responsible for developing infrastructure and organizing and developing the AI ecosystem. Alongside institutional and legal arrangements, the development of infrastructure related to digital technologies and AI must be prioritized.
The techno-geopolitical dualities mentioned in this research call on aligned and allied actors to adjust their commercial behavior according to the outlined standards, which are clearly defined against the rival technological pole. Washington is striving to expand its techno-geopolitical sphere of influence against the threat of Chinese AI to US allies such as Japan, India, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan. Meanwhile, Chinese companies are also targeting developing countries and the Global South in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, seeking to gain technological influence in these geopolitical regions. The main competition revolves around controlling global financial, informational, and telecommunications networks and more effectively participating in setting international technology standards and related norm-setting institutions.
Overall, technology has transformed traditional patterns of global competition. In the new context, economic leaps have shifted from traditional models to knowledge-based economies. Examining new development models shows that the role of digital technology, as the main driving element, has been elevated.
Thus, the focus of countries’ competition to enhance their strategic weight in the international system is shifting toward the digital economy and advanced technologies. From this perspective, any country or bloc that excels and leads in the technological domain will also lead the global economy, have greater geopolitical weight, and generally shape the arrangements related to the international balance of power.
The article first appeared in
Persian on IRNA.