Talks will work if ...
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What matters is whether negotiations will add anything of value to Iran’s national interest. If so, they will be a source of pride and strength. If not, they will yield no benefits for Iran. It is no secret that some actors squandered past opportunities. Hardliners played a disruptive role during the JCPOA era, throwing up roadblocks that shut the door on critical opportunities. Even when golden chances for a renewed agreement were on the table, the same groups burned those bridges. As a result, expectations for any new deal bringing home even 10% of the original JCPOA benefits are slim. At best, these negotiations may only help keep tensions in check, but hopes for major breakthroughs or concessions are few and far between.
Talks could pave way for regional calm
The format of the upcoming talks is set to be indirect, but if things move forward and evolve into direct negotiations, the outcome could have more impacts and the path to agreement far smoother.
These discussions might well set the stage for face-to-face talks and a gradual lifting of sanctions after years of deadlock. The process must remain grounded in mutual rights to ensure both sides come away with tangible gains.
A deal between Iran and the US would go a long way toward stabilizing the region. Apart from Israel—which remains gripped by fear over Iran’s progress—other regional countries have expressed support for such a breakthrough and broader peace.
As long as the region stays clear of war and tension, all countries stand to benefit. Israel, however, has always tried to stir the pot to fish in troubled waters.
Engaging with the US to lift sanctions could help untangle long-standing problems, but Iran must make full use of every available channel.
The truth is, in diplomacy, there are no permanent friends or foes. It is shared interests that call the shots. With Russia and China holding seats on the Security Council, they can play a constructive role in the standoff. Iran should step into the global arena confidently, but never at the cost of tying its national interests to those of others.