Fifth-generation warfare in Urmia
Behind foiled plot to foment ethnic strife, weaken Iran
By Navid Kamali
Foreign affairs expert
The unfortunate events of March 22, 2025, in Urmia, northwestern Iran, were not merely a localized and transient incident, but rather a warning sign and an echo of a geopolitical threat to our nation’s security. These bitter events, which occurred after Nowruz celebrations in a targeted, ethnic, and provocative manner in this border city, unveiled the long-standing strategy of Iran’s enemies.
The strategy was to engineer chaos and instability by activating ethnic and religious fault lines. It clearly showed that the ill-wishers of the Iranian nation continue to beat the drums of division and fragmentation, exploiting every opportunity and loophole, even misusing national and religious occasions and distorting the cultural rights of ethnic groups, to ignite the flames of ethnic and religious conflicts, ultimately aiming for the Balkanization of Iran.
What clearly reveals an asymmetric hybrid strategy at play is that that particular Nowruz celebration was carried out in a biased manner with an emphasis on a specific ethnic identity, was followed by the abuse of the mourning ceremonies for the martyrdom of Imam Ali (PBUH) by certain known individuals, and was peppered with the chanting of divisive and ethnic-nationalist slogans. This was all amidst escalating economic challenges and broad external pressures at a time when the hybrid warfare of enemies against our country had reached its peak. The ultimate goal of this strategy was nothing less than to dismantle the foundations of national unity, create controlled chaos, incite a proxy civil war, and ultimately, fragment and weaken a powerful and independent Iran.
These events can be analyzed within the framework of the fifth-generation warfare theory, where the primary focus is on creating instability and internal collapse by provoking social, ethnic, religious, and economic fault lines. As is evident, these unfortunate events coincided significantly with the intensification of oppressive economic pressures, as well as threatening and interventionist correspondence from the President of the United States Donald Trump regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This concurrence adds more complex and worrying dimensions to the situation and underscores the need for heightened strategic vigilance in the country. It appears that Iran’s sworn enemies, realizing their inability to confront Iran militarily and witnessing the Iranian nation’s resistance to oppressive sanctions, have concluded that they must destabilize and create insecurity within the country. They are relying on their fifth column among certain ethnic and religious groups to pave the way for internal collapse and, ultimately, Iran’s submission to their illegitimate and excessive demands.
In this context, one should not overlook the fact that the controversial and tension-inducing issue of the Zangezur Corridor remains unresolved. The governments of Turkey and Azerbaijan, with an evident desire for this strategic corridor and with the support of extra-regional actors, are waiting for an opportunity to establish a direct communication corridor between themselves. This would effectively create a geopolitical chokehold in our northwest, depriving Iran of direct access to the borders of Armenia and, consequently, Europe. This plan not only seriously endangers our national security, but also could lead to extensive geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus region, altering the balance of power to our detriment.
Furthermore, the audacious and interventionist statements of the director of Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT), regarding the launch of a Persian-language network with the explicit purpose of hurting Iran, are clear evidence that the enemies are determined to strike at Iran’s territorial integrity, independence, and national sovereignty. In this sinister path, they will not hesitate to use any means, not even provoking ethnic and religious fault lines and waging cognitive warfare against the Iranian people. In addition, the statements of this ostensibly cultural but, in reality, intelligence-tied director of TRT clearly show that the enemies are seeking to create a full-scale psychological war against Iran’s public opinion.
It is crucial to recognize that Iran is an ancient country with a rich and eventful history and a vibrant civilization. It has always been known as a land of diverse ethnicities and cultures. This ethno-cultural diversity has never been a point of weakness for Iran. Rather, as wisely stated by the Leader of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, and in accordance with Joseph Nye’s theory of soft power, it serves as a source of soft power and a golden, unparalleled opportunity for synergy, prosperity, social capital generation, and the further strengthening of the foundations of national unity and social cohesion.
Throughout the tumultuous history of this land, Iranian ethnicities — Kurds, Azeris, Lurs, Baluchs, Persians, Arabs, Turkmens, and others — have always stood shoulder to shoulder, in joys and sorrows, in hardships and ease, united against foreign threats and aggressions. The eight-year Sacred Defense (Iran-Iraq War) is a shining and undeniable example of this unity, solidarity, and self-sacrifice. During that crucial period, brave and valiant warriors of Islam, from all ethnicities and religions, from all corners of dear Iran, with unwavering faith and iron will, stood together against a fully armed army supported by the arrogant powers of East and West. The formation of combat divisions and brigades based on geographical regions and the presence of fighters from different ethnicities in these units were a clear and inspiring symbol of this unity, integration, and brotherhood. This organic solidarity, unlike the mechanical solidarity proposed by Durkheim, not only doesn’t prevent the manifestation of cultural diversity and differences but recognizes it as a source of strength and cultural richness.
The American Enterprise Institute, one of the influential and hawkish think tanks in the United States, and based on Seymour Martin Lipset’s theory of social cleavages, held a conference in 2005 entitled “The Unknown Iran: Another Case for Federalism?” In it, speakers, emphasizing the ethnic and cultural diversity in Iran and offering biased and tendentious analyses, claimed that Iran, compared to countries like Iraq or Afghanistan, is more susceptible to fragmentation and federalism. They argued that the US should support ethnic and religious minorities in Iran to create political changes and, ultimately, fragment the country.
These audacious and interventionist approaches clearly show what sinister plans the enemies have for Iran and Iranians and how they are trying to exploit our country’s ethnic and cultural diversity, which is a point of strength and a unique opportunity, turning it into a weakness and a threat, and thereby achieving their vile goals. This conference and the discussions held within it can be analyzed within the framework of Francis Fukuyama’s End of History and Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations — theories that seek to impose the superiority of Western liberal democracy and create confrontation and conflict between different civilizations and cultures!
While the great and proud Iranian nation’s response to these threats and conspiracies has always been, and will continue to be, unity, solidarity, national cohesion, and standing firm against the enemies, the country’s officials and rulers, to counter the new phase of threats from the enemies and neutralize their conspiracies, must adopt comprehensive and multifaceted strategies that encompass all dimensions and aspects of this complex threat. These strategies must be implemented in a coordinated and coherent manner in various political, economic, social, cultural, and security areas to effectively eliminate the grounds for instability and insecurity and to strengthen unity, solidarity, and national cohesion.
First and foremost, national unity must be strengthened by emphasizing shared cultural, historical, religious, and national commonalities, based on the principle of nation-building. Any action that leads to division, extreme ethnic nationalism, and fueling ethnic and religious differences must be strongly avoided. One of Iran’s problems in this regard is the occasional deployment of weak and imprudent officials in sensitive positions, especially in multicultural regions, which, at historical junctures, leads to crises in the country. Naturally, in addressing this issue, it is necessary to exercise greater deliberation and reflection in the selection of officials, even for the smallest responsibilities.
Furthermore, through balanced and fair development of different regions of the country, especially border and deprived areas, the grounds for dissatisfaction, discrimination, and deprivation must be eliminated. The creation of economic and social cleavages, which can be exploited by enemies and fuel environmental insecurities, must be prevented.
Moreover, all ethnicities and religions must be involved in the country’s affairs, at various levels of decision-making and implementation, to strengthen their sense of belonging, responsibility, and participation in the country’s destiny. The creation of any sense of discrimination, injustice, and marginalization among them must be avoided, and social justice must be considered as one of the main pillars of lasting security.
Furthermore, all media and cultural tools, especially state TV, social networks, and cyberspace, must be used to enlighten and raise public awareness. People must be made aware of the enemies’ sinister goals and conspiracies, especially in provoking ethnic and religious fault lines.
In addition, national and Iranian-Islamic identity must be strengthened, and the sense of national belonging and pride among all ethnicities and religions, especially their younger generations, must be reinforced. Patriotism must be promoted as a noble and unifying value.
Beyond what has been stated so far, by emphasizing the high values of Islam, especially the unifying and brotherhood-seeking teachings of the holy religion of Islam, the grounds for convergence, solidarity, and unity among all ethnicities and religions must be provided. The fueling of any kind of difference, division, and religious conflict that could be exploited by enemies must be strictly avoided.
Finally, intelligence agencies must also, with vigilance, insight, and sharpness, monitor all the movements and conspiracies of the enemies and, by adopting preventive and deterrent measures, prevent any action that harms the national unity, security, and territorial integrity of the country. Preemptive security must be considered as a fundamental principle in countering the threats of enemies.