Israel’s offensive in ...
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From Israel’s vantage point, the ideal scenario would see a moderate government in Damascus—one that distances itself from Iran while maintaining the capacity to counter groups like ISIS.
However, the reality on the ground suggests that further weakening Syria could backfire, fueling the rise of jihadist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group, which has recently ramped up its rhetoric against Israel, may well exploit public discontent to recruit more fighters.
The growing internationalization of the crisis adds another layer of complexity. The US, by issuing “General License 2” (GL2) on January 6, 2025, has effectively eased sanctions in favor of Syria’s transitional government while keeping an eye on Iran’s role.
Conversely, the Arab League and Turkey have accused Israel of “violating Syria’s sovereignty.” The tensions could soon spill over into the UN Security Council, where, on February 12, 2025, the US envoy blamed Iran for “destabilizing Syria”—a charge that Tehran swiftly dismissed as “baseless.”
Test for Middle East power dynamics
Israel’s assault on Syria is not just another border skirmish; it reflects a deeper power struggle between the Resistance Axis and the Israel-US-Arab coalition. While Israel has, in the short term, succeeded in degrading Syria’s and Hezbollah’s military capabilities, its occupation of buffer zones raises the specter of friction with local populations and further international entanglement.
At the same time, Israel’s claims of Iran’s withdrawal from Syria remain far from certain, given Tehran’s entrenched presence in Iraq and Lebanon. By opting for “buffer zone control” over diplomatic engagement, Israel appears to be walking a tightrope—one that may not secure long-term stability.
Ultimately, Syria’s fate hinges on Sharaa’s ability to form an inclusive government while the international community’s response to Israel’s territorial advances will play a decisive role in shaping the region’s future.