Syria, Iran, and ...
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Israel’s Strategy: Having occupied the Golan Heights for decades, Israel has consistently pursued a policy aimed at keeping Syria on edge. Airstrikes targeting Syrian military installations have become a regular occurrence, often justified as preemptive measures against potential threats. Moreover, Israeli forces have inched closer to Damascus, advancing within 20 kilometers of the capital. From Israel’s standpoint, a fractured and unstable Syria plays right into its hands.
Turkey’s Ambitions: For years, Turkey has sought to bring Syria into its sphere of influence, a goal that continues to dictate its policies. While Ankara remains fixated on securing its southern border, Erdogan’s overarching objective is to outmaneuver Iran in the region. Now, both Turkey and Israel find themselves reaping the benefits of Syria’s instability. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, has thrown his weight behind Russian military presence in Syria, viewing it as preferable to Turkish encroachment. This was underscored by Israel’s foreign minister’s recent visit to Moscow, during which he lobbied for Russia’s continued presence in Tartus.
The Arab world is keen on welcoming Syria back into the fold, but given the lack of unified Arab leadership, the pressure to reintegrate the country remains lukewarm at best. What ultimately matters for Syria’s future—and the wider region—is how Iran and Turkey navigate their differences. Both nations are regarded as adversaries by Netanyahu, yet their ability to strike a pragmatic accord could be a game-changer. For Iran, Syria’s role in the Resistance Axis is non-negotiable, while Turkey’s primary concern is bolstering its economic and political clout. Meanwhile, Israel’s endgame remains unchanged: a weakened Syria that can be easily kept in check.
In this intricate geopolitical chess game, a well-calculated agreement between Iran and Turkey could turn Syria into a formidable bulwark against Israeli expansionism. Achieving such an outcome would require direct, high-stakes negotiations—without outside interference.