End of war or expensive deal: What does Ukraine give and gain?
A double-edged sword in Zelenskyy’s hands: Is he betraying Ukraine’s ideals?
New details have emerged regarding the agreement between Zelenskyy and Trump, indicating that Ukraine is content with the concessions made. What are these details, and what did Ukraine give and gain?
By Rasoul Salimi
Political analyst
As the war between Ukraine and Russia approaches its third year, speculation about an agreement between Ukraine and the United States to end this conflict has intensified. Over the past few days, international media have reported on a draft agreement that is reportedly taking shape under the pressure of the US President Donald Trump. This agreement, according to news sources, includes concessions such as granting the US access to Ukraine’s mineral resources in exchange for security guarantees, eliciting varied reactions in Kyiv, Brussels, and Moscow.
Latest details of
Ukraine-US agreement
According to a report by The Washington Post, the draft agreement between Ukraine and the US consists of three main components: long-term security guarantees from Washington to protect Ukraine against Russian threats, granting access to Ukraine’s strategic mines to American companies, and pressuring Kyiv to accept a cease-fire that would lead to the presence of international peacekeeping forces. The report adds that negotiations are underway at the level of foreign ministers from both countries, with Trump personally emphasizing the need to expedite the process. Experts suggest that this structure of the agreement reflects a shift in the US approach from extensive military support to a more pragmatic strategy prioritizing economic interests. It appears that the Trump administration is seeking to reduce US military expenditures in Ukraine while simultaneously ensuring access to rare resources such as lithium and titanium, which are abundant in eastern Ukraine.
How did Ukraine’s perspective shift towards Trump’s plan?
The answer to this question is significant, as Ukrainian media, such as Kyiv Post, reported that the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned to accept negotiations following a tense phone call with senior officials in the Trump administration. This media outlet claims that the US threat to cut military and financial aid if Ukraine did not cooperate played a crucial role in changing Kyiv’s stance. Politico also reported that Zelenskyy received assurances for continued limited support during a meeting with US congressional representatives in Washington, conditioned on Ukraine accepting a cease-fire. Political observers contend that US economic and military pressure has put Zelenskyy in a position with limited options. The reduction of European support, due to domestic economic issues in member countries and fatigue from the war, has made Ukraine increasingly reliant on decisions from Washington.
What did Ukraine give and gain?
Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian media outlet, reported that Ukraine would hand over control of some of its eastern mines to American companies for a period of 20 years as part of this agreement. In return, the US has committed to providing advanced defense systems and ongoing military training to Ukraine without deploying forces directly. The New York Times also noted that the proposed cease-fire includes temporary border lines that would cede parts of occupied territories to Russia. Overall, this deal represents a double-edged sword for Ukraine. On one hand, security guarantees could prevent further Russian attacks; on the other hand, ceding resources and land means sacrificing a portion of the economic and territorial independence that Ukrainians have fought for.
What are Ukrainian media criticizing about proposed US plan?
Zerkalo Nedeli, an analytical weekly published in Ukraine, described this plan in an article on February 24, 2025, as “a betrayal of Ukraine’s ideals,” stating that handing over the mines to the US would turn Ukraine into an “economic colony.” The New Voice of Ukraine (NV) also reported on the same day that many Ukrainian politicians believe this agreement will ultimately favor Russia, as Moscow’s military pressure would ease without any cost incurred. These criticisms, rooted in concerns over the loss of national sovereignty, specifically focus on the fear among Ukrainian media that this agreement could weaken Zelenskyy in the eyes of the public and fuel domestic protest movements.
To what extent will US exploit Ukraine’s mines?
The scale of this exploitation reflects the US intention to transform Ukraine into a strategic economic partner, but the cost for Ukraine could be the loss of control over its natural wealth. Foreign Policy also reported that the US aims to exploit at least 30 percent of Ukraine’s mineral resources, including lithium, cobalt, and nickel, with a global market value reaching hundreds of billions of dollars. These resources are vital for advanced technology industries and the production of electric batteries. Sputnik further claimed that this move is part of the US strategy to reduce reliance on China in the supply chain of mineral resources.
EU’s perspective on Ukraine-US agreement
The European Union finds itself in a tough spot. On one hand, ending the war would benefit Europe’s economy, but on the other hand, weakening Ukraine could lead to increased Russian influence in the region. The Guardian has reported that the EU is concerned about this agreement, as undermining Ukraine’s position against Russia could jeopardize the security of Eastern Europe. Le Monde also noted that Paris and Berlin are calling for a more active role for NATO in any potential cease-fire and have criticized the unilateral approach of the United States.
Will Ukraine agree to agreement?
The Economist predicted on February 25 that Ukraine is likely to accept this agreement with a 70 percent probability, as economic and military pressures have left it with little choice. However, Kommersant warned that if Zelenskyy signs this agreement, he could face severe internal resistance that might lead to his withdrawal from the political scene. Experts suggest that Ukraine’s acceptance depends on various factors, including the level of public support and Russia’s response. If Moscow rejects the cease-fire, the agreement would effectively become meaningless.
Nonetheless, the Ukraine-US agreement is on the verge of being signed, yet many questions remain unanswered. Will this deal bring an end to the war, or will it turn Ukraine into a weaker player on the global stage? The answers to these questions will become clearer in the coming days, but what is certain is that this agreement will impact not only Ukraine’s fate but also the balance of power in Europe and beyond.
The article first appeared in Persian on KhabarOnline news agency.