Iran-Russia agreement ...
Page 1
Now that the world is going through the abnormal condition that Trump has created for everybody, the two points of view seem to converge on the following notion: Trump is not trustworthy anymore. This convergence is not exclusive to Iran, though, since the whole world is conceiving him as a global problem instead of a solution. It seems that the second term of Donald Trump as the US president has turned out to be problematic for the whole world, exemplified by his role in the Russia-Ukraine war, EU-Russia and China-Taiwan tensions, and North Korea’s threats against South Korea and Japan.
So, in Iran’s case too, Trump is not part of the solution, rather he is the core of the problem. Within Iran, the conservatist wing, which was very joyful about an agreement between Iran and Russia, believes that the inevitable attack of Israel as a proxy force of America in the region on Iran has become irresponsible after the thaw in US-Russia ties; thus, that agreement can act as a deterrent power for Iran. In this scenario, Israel and America will avoid battling Russia due to the agreement’s clauses. Trump will never attack Iran directly because of its heavy military and economic costs. On the other hand, reformists opine that Iran must never get closer to the East without considering the current world order which is obeyed by all powers and organizations.
In any case, we are in a new condition that may have not been predictable beforehand. The main issue is the deep intimacy between Trump and Putin. Of course, experts know that Trump is not intimate with anybody in the world, but considering America’s issues with the EU and China, he tries to get closer and closer to Russia, even at the cost of sacrificing Ukraine and the EU altogether.
What about Iran?
Our main enemy in the region, Israel, is in a very bad condition as it has sunk to new depths of moral and humanitarian depravity. But our allies are not as strong as they were two years ago, and Iran’s economic condition is not good either. The regional position of our rivals, like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, improved due to how things worked out. We need to cooperate with the world, but our security is being threatened by Israel, which has the support of the US. Russia, as a global power, is in a bad economic and, more importantly, political condition. Now, it is time to pose the main question: What will Russia do about the deal it made with Iran? The answer to this question lies in the clauses of the agreement: There’s not much Moscow can do other than to commit to them.
Then there is Trump’s trader personality, which is the dangerous and worrying part of the equation. He is unpredictable and uncertain, and this trait of him could affect the relationship between Russia and America. There’s a speculation that Putin aims to restore the USSR territory and governance, and Trump is just seeking to make the American economy first in the world. In this regard, there is no conflict between them apparently. But Iran and its dominant ideology in international affairs could become problematic for both sides.
The main point is that Trump acts contrary to global public order, and even then, he will not be able to do all that he wants to do. His method, which is dubbed “Peace Through Strength,” will not be applicable to every situation and problem. Meanwhile, his most dangerous mistake is the reinforcement of Russia to weaken the EU, China, and Iran. So, we arrive at the paradoxical part of the equation: Iran is an enemy of America but also a friend of America’s new friend, Russia. From here onwards, the future will rely on Russia’s actions. However, our agreement with Russia will balance the relations and reduce the threats to Iran.
It seems that Iran’s best bet is to not rely on global powers, play its own game, and try to create a new regional order in the Middle East. Our optimal way of navigating through Trump’s second term is to expand bilateral cooperation with all our neighbors. The cornerstone of this policy could be based on Trumpophobia; a fear that will slowly engulf the entire world.