Reading between the lines of Trump’s memo
By Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh
International affairs expert
US President Donald Trump has taken a far more aggressive stance against Iran in his new term compared to his previous tenure. Although he has tried to signal that he is “unhappy” after signing the memo to reinstate maximum pressure on Iran, the fine print of the document makes it clear—his administration is set on backing Iran into a corner, put it in a position of weakness and pave the way for the use of all available tools against the country
Trump is not genuinely interested in resolving issues with Iran; rather, he prefers them to remain “an open wound”—a source of persistent instability. His administration’s strategy revolves around stirring up unrest within Iran and driving a wedge between the government and the people. The explicit goal of driving Iran’s oil exports down to zero is a move to deprive the government of vital revenues, making it increasingly difficult to manage the country’s affairs.
Trump is looking to rally all factors, both domestically and internationally, to pile pressure on Iran. What has transpired in practice is the signing of an anti-Iranian memorandum, despite his public rhetoric about seeking negotiations and a deal with the Iranian government. The reality of Trump today is that he wants to double down on anti-Iranian policies with renewed maximum pressure, not to reach a deal.
His latest memo lays out clear objectives that, in effect, leave no room for diplomacy. While he tells reporters that his only concern is Iran developing a nuclear bomb, his document takes aim at Iran’s other strategic capabilities, including its ballistic missile program, proving that pressure—not diplomacy—is his real agenda.
Iran, however, has made its stance clear that it is only willing to negotiate on its nuclear program, not its missile capabilities or regional influence. If Trump’s sole concern were truly nuclear weapons, then the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) would have been the best mechanism to prevent Iran from obtaining them. Yet, it was Trump himself who tore up the deal and walked away from it. His real motivation appears to be keeping uranium enrichment technology under the tight grip of the nuclear powers club.
One of the key points in the memorandum is to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero. I believe this will not come to pass; however, the cost of selling oil for Iran will rise significantly and the Iranian government will have to offer even bigger discounts to incentivize buyers to continue importing crude from Iran. But the most dangerous aspect of Trump’s memo is its directive to the US Attorney General to impound tankers carrying Iranian oil in the high seas. If such an act were carried out, Iran would hit back in kind by seizing US vessels in international waters, triggering an escalation that would send tensions through the roof.
Far from paving the way for diplomacy, Trump’s policies are laying the groundwork for greater confrontation. His administration aims to choke off Iran’s revenues, deprive it of its capabilities and undermine its influence abroad, all in an attempt to render the Iranian government ineffective domestically and put it in a position of weakness internationally.
The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian should build a sincere and stronger relationship with the Iranian people, as Trump aims to turn up the heat on Iran to fuel despair among the public.