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Number Seven Thousand Seven Hundred and Sixty Two - 04 February 2025
Iran Daily - Number Seven Thousand Seven Hundred and Sixty Two - 04 February 2025 - Page 7

Where Iran-US ...

Scenario 1: Full re-implementation of JCPOA

Page 1

Scenario 1: Full re-implementation of JCPOA
This scenario represents a return to the original 2015 deal, under which the US and Iran would agree to mutually restore compliance with all JCPOA provisions through rigorous negotiations.
Iran is required to dismantle advanced centrifuges, limit uranium enrichment, and allow enhanced international inspections. In turn, the US will lift sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, providing Iran access to global markets and frozen assets.
Sanctions relief, as one of its potential outcomes, could help stabilize Iran’s economy, reduce the tensions, and signal the US’s commitment to diplomacy and multilateralism.
However, years of animosity and mistrust between the US and Iran make reaching a consensus difficult as both countries face internal opposition to the deal, with hardliners in Iran seeing the JCPOA as a betrayal of their revolutionary ideals and American critics viewing it as insufficient to constrain Iran’s nuclear “ambitions” and regional activities.

Scenario 2: An interim deal
This scenario envisions a partial agreement that falls short of a full JCPOA restoration as Tehran and Washington negotiate a limited deal under which Iran takes some initial steps to curb its nuclear program and the US provides limited sanctions relief.
The interim deal might include a freeze on certain enrichment activities or the release of some Iranian assets.
The deal could also serve as a stopgap measure that prevents an immediate crisis and allows time for more comprehensive negotiations.
Despite establishing a foundation for trust and paving the way for a possible full restoration in the future, this type of agreement could cause both sides to view it differently, which leads to disputes and misunderstandings.
Although the interim deal could offer some much-needed economic relief to Iran, Tehran may have little incentive to fulfill its end of the bargain as the illegal Western-led sanctions have taken a heavy toll on the country’s oil-dependent economy.

Scenario 3: Failure of diplomacy, escalation
In the most dangerous scenario, diplomatic efforts collapse and neither side is willing to compromise, with Iran further expanding its nuclear program, potentially approaching weapons capability, and the US imposing more stringent sanctions or taking military action.
In this case, the risk of military confrontation, either directly between Iran and the US or through their allies in the region, runs significantly high and the Western narrative of Iran developing what is claimed to be “nuclear weapons” would raise the prospect of a regional arms race.
The impact of regional conflict and increased geopolitical tensions would likely have far-reaching consequences and the Iran-US escalation, in particular, could quickly spiral out of control.

Scenario 4: Focus on other issues, de-emphasizing JCPOA
This option sees both sides step back from the highly contentious nuclear issue and focus on alternative avenues.
In this scenario, the US and Iran decide to temporarily de-prioritize the JCPOA with the aim of addressing other issues like regional security, human rights, or economic cooperation, which may involve backdoor negotiations and a tacit agreement to avoid a direct confrontation.
In addition to offering breathing room from the high-stakes nuclear issue, this approach can foster bilateral cooperation on regional security issues and lower tensions.
The fourth scenario, however, fails to resolve the nuclear program’s risks and the threat of escalation could quickly return if the underlying tensions are not addressed.
To put it in a nutshell, the path forward regarding the JCPOA is highly uncertain as it is a function of domestic politics, regional tensions, and the choices made by the top echelons in Tehran and
 Washington.

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