Where Iran-US slugfest on JCPOA may wind up
By Mehdi Ebrahim
Staff writer
Running roughshod over intranational law and diplomatic principles, President Donald Trump of the United States walked out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), on May 8, 2018, and reinstated draconian sanctions on the Islamic Republic as part of Washington’s so-called “maximum pressure” campaign.
Following in the United States’ footsteps, the European signatories to the multilateral pact which had been ratified in the form of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, levied similar sanctions and left the future of the historic agreement up in the air.
After a year of strategic patience, Iran decided to let go of some of the restrictions on its nuclear energy program, resorting to its legal rights under the JCPOA, which grants a party the right to suspend its contractual commitments in case of a non-performance by the other side.
On multiple occasions, the administration of former US president Joe Biden said it was willing to compensate for Trump’s mistake and rejoin the deal, but it opted to retain the sanctions as leverage.
Now, with Trump back in office and the numerously-acknowledged failure of the maximum pressure campaign, the future of the landmark deal hangs in the balance and presents a complex web of potential scenarios for the US and Iran.
Fraught with political, economic, and security considerations, the path forward is uncertain for both Tehran and Washington, with four possible scenarios coming up.
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