Trump’s return to White House:
Resumption of maximum pressure or new plan for Iran?
Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20 for his second term as President of the United States. During his first term, he implemented unexpected policies, even for US’ allies, which drew significant reactions. According to numerous international media reports, Trump is poised to bring a different set of plans this time around, for the world and Iran, which could be a blend of his previous and new policies. For the second time, Trump has returned to the Oval Office, where the world might witness some of his most turbulent days, or, as American Democrats and European policymakers suggest, the least conflict-prone period in contemporary US history.
By analyzing Trump’s first term, which began with the unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA and continued with severe anti-Iran policies and the maximum pressure campaign, it is reasonable to expect that Trump’s political behavior in his new term at the White House will not change significantly. This is particularly important for us Iranians as we observe Trump’s return.
The mental image of Trump’s approach and the rhetoric that his new U.S. administration’s foreign and national security team will adopt toward Iran is of paramount importance during these days of his return. Given the analysis of his first term, which started with the unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and continued with harsh anti-Iran policies and the initiation of the maximum pressure campaign, it is expected that Trump’s political behavior in his new term will remain largely unchanged.
This perception is reinforced by the aggressive statements and adversarial stances taken by the new US president and those close to him, such as Marco Rubio, the nominee for Secretary of State, and Mark T. Walters, the national security advisor, during the election campaign and afterward.
A brief look at Trump’s anti-Iran policies
Trump’s anti-Iran policies during his first term went far beyond a simple approach and encompassed a coordinated and multifaceted set of actions aimed at applying maximum pressure on Iran to alter its regional, military, and nuclear behaviors. This complex policy included various dimensions, some of which are detailed below:
1. Withdrawal from JCPOA, reimposition of sanctions
This move formed the cornerstone of Trump’s maximum pressure campaign. Trump viewed the JCPOA as a weak and inadequate agreement that failed to curb Iran’s nuclear program and did not secure US interests in the long term. Instead of negotiating to improve the JCPOA, Trump withdrew from the agreement on May 8, 2018. Following this, he reimposed the previous sanctions against Iran, which had been suspended under the JCPOA, and added new sanctions. The primary goal of these sanctions was to exert maximum economic pressure on Iran, ultimately forcing it to negotiate a more stringent deal.
2. Secondary sanctions
In addition to reimposing previous sanctions, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions that extended beyond the scope of the JCPOA. These secondary sanctions targeted foreign individuals and companies, and governments that engaged in trade with Iran. This move put significant pressure on international companies and governments, leading many to sever ties with Iran. As a result, Iran was largely isolated from the global financial system and faced severe limitations in accessing international financial resources.
3. Military pressure and threats
Alongside economic sanctions, the Trump administration increased the US military presence in the Persian Gulf and the region. This included deploying aircraft carriers, increasing troop numbers, and conducting joint military exercises with regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The aim was to heighten the sense of insecurity and instability in Iran and the region.
4. Focus on Iran’s regional activities
Trump’s policies not only targeted Iran’s nuclear program but also its regional activities. The administration provided cautious and indirect support to groups opposing the Iranian government and simultaneously offered military and logistical support to Iran’s regional rivals. Forming regional coalitions against Iran was also a key component of this strategy.
5. Tough and provocative rhetoric
President Trump frequently used strong and sometimes provocative language against Iran. This rhetoric, coupled with practical actions, was aimed at increasing the sense of insecurity in Iran and further destabilizing the region.
Trump’s policy had a range of outcomes
Given the above, it must be said that Trump’s maximum pressure policy had diverse consequences. While some argue that these policies have managed to deter Iran from advancing its nuclear program, others point to increased tensions, regional instability, and severe economic impacts on Iran as the negative consequences of these policies. The long-term effects of these policies remain a subject of ongoing debate and political controversy, both within Iran’s political spectrum and among US political parties.
Trump’s criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy
During the four years of Democratic rule at the White House, Trump did not remain idle. He actively criticized the foreign policy programs of the Joe Biden administration, particularly on issues such as the Ukraine conflict and Iran, through domestic, international media, and even on social media platforms. The peak of these criticisms occurred during his campaign for the 2024 presidential election, which provided insight into his views on the most critical issues of US foreign policy.
Trump’s statements on Iran
To better grasp Trump’s approach to his policies toward Iran, it is crucial to consider the stances and views of influential figures and the proposed cabinet members of the new US president, who align with the policies of the Republican government. This can offer a more comprehensive and accurate understanding.
A more detailed analysis of Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric, key foreign policy figures, and the future US government’s approach to Iran:
1. Trump’s anti-Iran statements in 2024 campaign
Throughout the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump emphasized his role as a strong and decisive leader in foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran. Key elements of his statements and positions included:
- Continuation of first-term policies: Trump frequently referred to his 2018 decision to withdraw from the JCPOA as a cornerstone of his strong stance against Iran. He criticized the Biden administration for seeking to return to the JCPOA, accusing it of “weakness” in dealing with Tehran.
- Middle East tensions: Trump condemned the tensions in the Middle East and vowed to do everything possible to protect US interests and the Israeli regime.
2. Views of key foreign policy figures
Undoubtedly, some of Trump’s cabinet members and advisors will play a crucial role in shaping and implementing US foreign policy objectives. Reviewing their positions can provide valuable insights into the decisions and actions of the future US government.
- Marco Rubio (Secretary of State in Trump’s Second Term)
Background and rhetoric: Rubio has long been a vocal critic of Iran, opposing the JCPOA and advocating for sanctions to counter Iran’s regional influence and missile program.
Political orientation: Rubio emphasizes strengthening alliances in the Middle East, particularly with Israel and Persian Gulf states, and calls for increased U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf.
- Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor)
Background and focus: Waltz, a former veteran and former congressman, is known for his strong support of Israel and emphasis on maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. He has stated that stability in the Middle East is a fundamental aspect of US foreign policy.
- Peter Hegseth (Secretary of Defense Candidate)
Background: Hegseth, a veteran and media personality, has consistently supported Trump’s foreign policy approach.
Political role: His influence is expected to drive more practical actions in regional foreign policy.
3. Trump’s approach to Iran in his second term
American media reports on the potential approach of the new US government toward Iran include the following:
- Updated maximum pressure strategy: Trump’s second-term policy toward Iran will build on the “maximum pressure” strategy from his first term.
- Strengthening of sanctions: The goal is to target Iran’s oil exports, financial sector, and various military and non-military entities.
- Economic isolation: Encouraging global partners to cut trade ties with Iran and effectively isolating it from international markets.
- Increased military sales in region: The US will increase arms sales to regional allies in the Middle East.
- Advancing Israel-Arab peace agreements: The Trump administration will work to formalize peace agreements between Israel and Arab countries (based on the Abraham Accords). Efforts to pressure the Netanyahu cabinet to negotiate with Palestinian resistance forces and accept a cease-fire are also anticipated, as one of Saudi Arabia’s key conditions for joining the Abraham Accords is the establishment of peace and a two-state solution in Palestine.
- Engaging European allies: The US government will strive to involve European allies more actively in the stricter enforcement of sanctions.
- Weakening resistance network: The US government will undertake extensive efforts to weaken the Resistance Axis in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.
According to media reports, Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric and policies proposed before his return to the White House indicate a continued strategy aimed at increasing economic pressure, countering regional influence, and preventing Iran’s nuclear program. However, official statements from the new US government, starting from Trump’s re-entry into the White House, will be considered the official positions of the second Trump administration.
A key point is that the presence of a group of hardline Republicans in key positions within the Trump administration has increased the likelihood and speculation that the new US government’s approach will shift towards confrontation rather than diplomacy.
According to foreign media reports, the new US president, immediately after the inauguration ceremony, entered the White House and issued several executive orders, including the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization, the implementation of strict laws against foreign immigrants and Mexican immigrants, the pardon of over a thousand of his supporters who were arrested during the 2021 Capitol attack, and the revocation of some of Biden’s executive orders.
The article was provided by the Persian service of the Islamic
Republic News Agency (IRNA).