War or peace ...
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Gaza-Israel flashpoint
Trump’s Middle East policies will reclaim the spotlight upon his return to the White House. A key and sizzling issue in the region, influenced by Trump’s maneuvers, is the Gaza-Israel conflict and the simmering tensions between Israel and Palestinian factions. Trump’s first term saw a staunchly pro-Israel stance, characterized by the 2018 relocation of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Al-Quds (Jerusalem) and the 2019 recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights. Yet, before his return to power, Trump played a pivotal role in defusing tensions and setting a deadline for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas.
However, the resulting cease-fire fell short of meeting all of Israel’s expectations, provoking discontent among certain Israeli extremist factions. This led to the resignation of Israel’s Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben-Gvir. Trump’s White House comeback is likely to bolster support for Israel, but this may not necessarily fulfill the desires of all Israeli political camps.
Domino effect of normalization
A standout achievement of Trump’s first term was the Abraham Accords, which paved the way for Israel’s normalization of relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. These agreements, a departure from the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, sidestepped the Palestinian issue and rights. The architects of these accords believed that regional stability could be attained even without addressing the Palestinian issue. However, events since October 7 have exposed the potential pitfalls of overlooking the Palestinian issue.
As Trump is set to begin his second term, he is expected to pick up where he left off, pushing for further normalization between Israel and Arab nations. Saudi Arabia, a prime target of this policy, is likely to witness intense diplomatic efforts aimed at fostering Riyadh-Tel Aviv relations.
Iran conundrum
Trump’s Iran policy had two primary objectives: thwarting what he called Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reining in Iranian-backed proxy forces in the region. In recent months, Iran has made huge strides in its nuclear capabilities, fueled by direct tensions with Israel. Trump is likely to dust off the maximum pressure strategy to coerce Tehran back to the negotiating table and extract further concessions.
But this strategy might not bear the desired fruit. The new Iranian government, while keen on negotiations, has consistently maintained that it will only sit down for “dignified talks.” Furthermore, Iran, well-versed in withstanding the so-called maximum pressure, is unlikely to cave in. If the maximum pressure strategy fails, calls for US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities could grow louder, particularly from Israel and hawkish voices in Congress.
Persian Gulf Arab states, having learned from past experiences, also lean toward a negotiated settlement of the Iran-US crisis. The 2019 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the 2022 strikes on the UAE, which drew limited US response, have convinced these countries that their security relies on de-escalation with Iran. Hence, Arab states are eager to prevent Iran from going nuclear and are pushing for a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.
Shifting sands in Levant
Trump’s policies will directly influence developments in Syria and Lebanon. In Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, seeks to woo the US and attract Western support by establishing relative stability in Syria. In Lebanon, General Joseph Aoun, the former army chief, aims to strengthen military and security ties with the US, curb Hezbollah’s influence and secure more military aid. These shifts could disrupt the regional power balance and intensify the rivalry between pro-Iran groups and US-aligned factions.
Bottom line
Trump’s return to the White House promises major shifts in US Middle East policies. His strategies could fuel rivalries, ratchet up pressure on Iran, rekindle the Israel-Arab normalization process and alter the power dynamics in Syria and Lebanon. The Middle East’s trajectory during Trump’s presidency may either witness continued maximum pressure on Iran, escalating regional conflicts, or a push for new diplomatic deals, each with its unique ramification for regional security and stability.