US scenario for West Asia
A plan for Middle East: Israel’s strategy against Iran
The issue of territorial expansion, known as the “Greater Israel” project, is directly related to what Americans referred to as the “New Middle East” initiative in the 1990s. Undoubtedly, the developments in the Middle East over the past few decades can be interpreted and analyzed in light of these designs. Given the increasing significance of this topic, it will be addressed in a series of separate notes. Below, you will find the first part of this collection:
A few months ago, the release of an image depicting the “Greater Israel” emblem on the uniform of an Israeli soldier sparked outrage among the people of Arab countries. In this image, the promised land of Israel stretches from the Nile to the Euphrates, encompassing areas from Medina to Lebanon, and parts of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, all of Jordan, and Palestine. The anger stirred among Arab populations likely stems from the image’s circulation on social media; however, the notion of Israel’s expansion has been repeatedly articulated by the regime’s leaders in various forms. “Theodor Herzl,” the founder of Israeli regime, discussed the idea of “expanding Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates” in his memoirs prior to the establishment of the regime.
In January 2024, the “Middle East Monitor,” a think tank that gathers information from various sources, released a video featuring Israeli politician and analyst Avi Lipkin, in which he asserts during a television program, “Ultimately, our borders will extend from Lebanon to Saudi Arabia, and then from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates. Who is on the other side of the Euphrates? The Kurds. We are friends with the Kurds. Therefore, we have the Mediterranean behind us and the Kurds in front. I believe that after that, we will take Mecca, Medina, and Mount Sinai and cleanse these places.”
Oded Yinon, an advisor to Ariel Sharon, the 11th Prime Minister of Israel, wrote an important article in 1980 entitled “A Strategy for Israel in the 1980s,” in which he discusses numerous geopolitical ideas related to the region and the conflicts Israel faces with its neighbors. Yinon notes that the creation of a “Coptic-Christian state” in Egypt could lead to the downfall and dissolution of that country, which in turn could even cause the collapse of Libya and Sudan.
The text continues that the complete dissolution of Lebanon into five provinces serves as a prelude for the entire Arab world, including Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, which is currently unfolding. Israel’s long-term goal on the eastern front is the dissolution of Syria and Iraq and, subsequently, unique ethnic or religious regions like Lebanon; whereas the dissolution of the military power of these countries is viewed as an immediate short-term objective.”
Yinon further elaborates that Syria will be fragmented into several countries based on its ethnic and religious structure, akin to modern-day Lebanon, resulting in the establishment of an Alawite Shia state along its coast and a Sunni state in the Aleppo region. This goal will ultimately guarantee peace and security in the region and is currently within Israel’s reach.
The Middle East Political and Economic Institute, run by some former security officials from Eastern Europe, reported on July 6, 2024, before the Israeli army’s attack on Lebanon, under the title “Greater Israel: an Ongoing Expansion Plan for the Middle East and North Africa,” stating, “Although not new, the Greater Israel project appears to receive renewed attention in the light of the most recent war from Gaza, that reportedly led to the death of more than 34,000 and wounding of over 78’000 Palestinians, and the prospect for a potential war in Lebanon. This recent Gaza development appears to at least pause the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia (signed in 2020), but should Israel pursue its “Greater Israel” project, whose maps match Herzl’s territorial demands and clearly hints at extending its territory in Saudi Arabia, including Neom and according to Avi Lipkin Mecca and Medina, the envisioned regional peace becomes an unclear concept”.
In statements made by Israeli officials and analysts, there is no fundamental or long-term concept indicating a potential limitation on Israel’s territorial expansion. Therefore, based on the analyzed data, it is difficult to distinguish between the potential strategic patience planned for the realization of “Greater Israel” and the possibility of an agreement between Tel Aviv and Saudi Arabia, along with other neighbors, to form some kind of union considering the map recently displayed by Israeli soldiers.
The regional geopolitical dynamics seem to be characterized by various forms of conflict, which, in light of the active “Greater Israel” project, likely points to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as an increase in confrontation between Iran and its allies on one side, and Israel, the United States, and their allies on the other and Turkey plays a significant role in this confrontation.
Laura Kelly, a senior reporter for The Hill, writes that one year after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, “Israel is reshaping the Middle East by force”, taking the fight to Iran and its allies “with the help of the United States”.
This comes as Netanyahu stated in a cabinet meeting that “the October 7 war is about our existence and acts as a savior. I want this war to be officially recognized as such. We are changing the security reality in our region for our children and our future to ensure that what happened on October 7 does not happen again.”
Randa Slim, a senior expert and the Director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Middle East Institute, also states that in the past, their Israeli counterparts have said that the security and political institutions in Tel Aviv have always believed that what is referred to as the great war will be inevitable.
Despite all of this, Netanyahu’s ultimate goal remains unclear; he is continually escalating conflicts on multiple fronts. Simultaneously, he is pursuing air and ground operations in southern Lebanon while continuing military actions in the Gaza Strip and security measures in the West Bank, and he has also included attacks on Yemeni resistance in his agenda.
Jonathan Lord, senior fellow and director of the Middle East Security program at the Center for a New American Security said, “When it comes to reshaping the Middle East, I think the Israelis are certainly trying to reshape the security threats in closest proximity to themselves”.
“You can’t stay at full mobilization forever. This will rob your society. It will destroy your economy.”
Experts believe that changing the geographical borders in the region, in cooperation with Israel and the United States, does not necessarily mean expanding the territorial borders of a regime called Israel. Rather, due to demographic issues, the Zionist regime is likely to make every effort to annex Gaza and the West Bank to the territory it currently controls, and in another attempt to secure its safety, it aims to weaken Middle Eastern countries by dividing them into smaller sections so they do not pose a security threat to this regime.
The article was provided by the Persian service of the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).