Why did Assad fall?
Before answering the reason for the rapid fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, we have to touch on how states theoretically survive. Every state needs four basic elements to survive, which are: nation, state, territory, and history.
By Gholamreza Mansouri
Political science expert
Nation
Every state relies on a mass of human beings or people. These people live together and also have a shared identity or characteristic or, at least, a common goal in mind. There is no doubt that states are in the hands of the people and the power of any government depends on their level of satisfaction.
Of course, nationality itself is a modern political term that defines the overall identity of every human being in the world. It shows who belongs where and how everyone describes themselves with it. The extremely common nature of the feeling of belonging to a territory and a state indicates how deep the concept of nationalities runs among human societies.
In the case of Syria, its Kurds and Turkmens were part of the same society alongside Arabs, but their basic rights were ignored by the Assad government. We see that the name of the country was the Syrian Arab Republic, and the name of their national army was the Syrian Arab Army. These show that the Syrian nation failed to include their ethnic minorities.
State
The second element is the state. Its sovereignty includes the entire territory of that country. Of course, there are two types of states or governments. In the West or developed countries, there are conventional pluralistic governments that are built with the participation of all social entities such as both minorities and majorities, whether they are differentiated by religion, language, or anything else.
Another form of state belongs to undeveloped countries. Syria was one of them. There was no type of participation in the creation of its sovereignty as Syria’s power was controlled by oligarchs or some minorities. Let us not forget that the government or state has the exclusive right to use power. The Baath Party, which controlled the army and the state, ruled the country without allowing the participation of ordinary people or the elites of society.
Territory
Every country has its own borders that define its territory. After the 1967 war, part of Syria was occupied by Israel, and even after the Arab Spring in 2011, Syria lacked territorial integrity due to the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous government by the SDF forces in the country’s northeast. For this reason, the government was not at all useful in its territory and lacked the necessary efficiency.
History
The most important element that makes states stronger is history. History can create a common sense of existence between people. States can also use history as an element to build great people. Syria has a great history as a land of pluralities. In the past, Syria was the homeland of some pivotal civilizations. Due to its geopolitical location, it has connected various cultures, thoughts, and religions throughout history, which has enriched its cultural heritage in return. However, these lessons were ignored by the Assad government as it chose to define Syria in a different way that weakened the national identity of Syrians. In fact, I think, more than anything, the denial of history led to the denial of Assad’s Syria.
Of the four elements needed to build a strong modern state or government, Syria had all four, but due to wrong policies and external pressures — such as numerous Israeli attacks and Western sanctions — it could never become a developed and strong country. The accumulation of popular demands, especially in the economic and welfare arenas, and the government’s inability to respond to them ultimately fanned the flames of a war against the Assad government in 2011, and 14 years later, the Syrian government was overthrown by armed rebel groups.