East Euphrates crisis:
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Kurdish-US cooperation in East Euphrates
Kurdish forces in the east of the Euphrates, particularly the YPG, serve as a key partner for the US in the region. Backed by American intelligence, weapons, and logistics, these forces aim to solidify their governance in the region through the establishment of quasi-state structures. This development poses direct implications for the security of Iran’s borders.
Border threats to Iran: Scenario of a second Kurdistan
The experience of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region has shown that the empowerment of Kurdish groups in the region is closely linked to similar movements in Iran’s border areas. Strengthening the Kurds east of the Euphrates could incite ethnic tensions within Iran. Consequently, Iran faces a multilayered threat: increased military activity along its western borders on the one hand, and heightened ethnic and separatist sentiments within its borders on the other.
Turkey’s role in East Euphrates developments
The fall of Assad’s government will also activate Turkey as a key player in the developments east of the Euphrates. Ankara, viewing the Kurdish presence in northern Syria as an existential threat, is likely to launch additional military operations in the region. Although Turkey’s policies may appear aligned with US interests on the surface, deep-seated conflicts between these two actors could add further complexity to the regional dynamics.
Iran’s strategy to manage crisis
Under these circumstances, Iran must adopt a multifaceted strategy to counter the expansion of US influence east of the Euphrates. Iran’s priority will be to strengthen local proxy forces and establish security networks in eastern Syria. Leveraging the capacities of Arab tribes and local communities dissatisfied with the US presence and the SDF’s activities in these areas could form part of this strategy. Additionally, Russia, which shares common interests with Iran in curbing US influence, may continue some level of intelligence and military cooperation in Syria during the post-Assad era.
Ultimately, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government will present a formidable challenge for the resistance axis, particularly Iran. The east of the Euphrates will emerge as the focal point of regional developments, and Iran must harness all its geopolitical and security tools to turn this crisis into an opportunity to reinvigorate its presence in Syria.